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#1
11-12-2007, 10:01 PM
 BulletsBlitz Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 11

As you may know Absolute Poker has a progressive bad beat jackpot that has gotten up to nearly \$1M at times. The qualifications are losing with quad 8 or better, while using both hole cards. The winner of the hand must also use both hole cards. The player with the losing quad 8 or better hand gets 1/2 the jackpot. The winner of the pot gets 1/4, and the other players dealt into that hand split the remaining 1/4.
I am interested in finding the probability of such a hand being dealt. Can anyone tell me the answer, or better yet, explain how the problem can be solved?
#2
11-13-2007, 01:17 AM
 pococurante Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: VA Posts: 138

It's pretty tough to figure out the odds for this since there are so many variables. Here are some very rough numbers...

Quads over quads is more likely to happen than any hand involving a straight flush, I'll stick to that for now.

Odds of being dealt a pocket pair above 7: 1 in 31.57.
Odds of 1 person out of 9 getting it: 9/31.5 = 28.5%
Odds of 2 people getting qualifying pairs... let's just call it 1/14

Then assuming both players stay in until the river (which is unlikely), the odds of quads over quads is

4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 * (1/49 + 1/48) = 1 in 133,967.

133,967 x 14 = 1,875,538.

Sure, there are straight flush hands out there that will improve the odds of hitting the jackpot... but also keep in mind a lot of potential jackpot hitting hands are folded before the river.

My guess is that at best, your chances are 1 in 2,000,000 to win for each hand you play.

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