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#41
05-11-2007, 11:20 AM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
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shermn... can you explain these numbers and where they come from....I find it very interesting. ty [/ QUOTE ] I'll be submitting an article to the magazine in the next month or two about this type of calculation. I won't send it this month b/c I already am submitting a different and un-related article. If brief, it is done like this: 1. 1/# of entrants = Random prob. of winning 2. Add these up over all tournaments. This number is the number of tournaments won expected by chance alone. 3. Divide the actual number of tournaments won by the number expected by chance. To be clear, this isn't exactly how I do it, but it is a close approximation. 
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#43
05-11-2007, 02:39 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
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In fact, he stressed that if an opponent went allin with KK and showed him the first hand of a $1K tournament, he would gladly fold AA. [/ QUOTE ] I like the part about the other guy showing him KK. It be a tougher decision if the guy shoved on his AA but didn't tell him what he had.
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#44
05-11-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
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I get the point...thank you... I am interested to do this for my own results... [/ QUOTE ] PM me your SN on your websites or whatever and I can do it pretty quickly/easily using OPR.
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#45
05-11-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In fact, he stressed that if an opponent went allin with KK and showed him the first hand of a $1K tournament, he would gladly fold AA. [/ QUOTE ] I like the part about the other guy showing him KK. It be a tougher decision if the guy shoved on his AA but didn't tell him what he had. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#46
05-11-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, using a measure beyond ROI, I get the following for JohnnyBax only using his Stars Results: Buyins less than $110. Also includes $55 Rebuys. Total tournaments = 1798. Bax is 4.01 Times more likely than random chance to win a tournament on average. Using a 95% CI, his upper limit is 5.92 and his lower limit is 2.68 times more likely than random chance to win the tournament. For those who don't know...this is damn good. Buyins over $110 (includes $109 rebuys). For a total of 1202 tournaments. Bax is 2.13 Times more likely than random chance to win a tournament on average. Using a 95% CI, his upper limit is 3.55 and his lower limit is 1.26 times more likely than random chance to win the tournament. Pretty good evidence that he is a winning player even at this buy-in level. Note that these estimates are representative of size of field. End debate. [/ QUOTE ] Sherm... Thanks for your input. I want to clarify tho that the limit of Bax's superior performance seems to be ABOVE the $109 rebuy (which he kills). For buy ins of $150 and above (including a few 200 rebuys) he is currently running at a loss since the beginning of '06. Most of the other top online players don't show the same trend (they may be up and down at different buy in levels, but don't seem to have an upper limit). Just wondering if anyone here had any serious theories as to why this might be? Now I'm also wondering why your "win expectation" number (or whatever you'd like to call it) is a better figure of merit than ROI?
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#49
05-11-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In fact, he stressed that if an opponent went allin with KK and showed him the first hand of a $1K tournament, he would gladly fold AA. [/ QUOTE ] I like the part about the other guy showing him KK. It be a tougher decision if the guy shoved on his AA but didn't tell him what he had. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing his point was: 41,095,296 games 0.005 secs 8,219,059,200 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 77.537% 77.37% 00.17% 31794840 69066.00 { AA } Hand 1: 22.463% 22.30% 00.17% 9162324 69066.00 { 87s } --- 61,642,944 games 0.063 secs 978,459,428 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 81.946% 81.71% 00.23% 50371344 142614.00 { AA } Hand 1: 18.054% 17.82% 00.23% 10986372 142614.00 { KK }
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#50
05-11-2007, 08:43 PM
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Re: The Bax Limit Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In fact, he stressed that if an opponent went allin with KK and showed him the first hand of a $1K tournament, he would gladly fold AA. [/ QUOTE ] I like the part about the other guy showing him KK. It be a tougher decision if the guy shoved on his AA but didn't tell him what he had. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing his point was: 41,095,296 games 0.005 secs 8,219,059,200 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 77.537% 77.37% 00.17% 31794840 69066.00 { AA } Hand 1: 22.463% 22.30% 00.17% 9162324 69066.00 { 87s } --- 61,642,944 games 0.063 secs 978,459,428 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 81.946% 81.71% 00.23% 50371344 142614.00 { AA } Hand 1: 18.054% 17.82% 00.23% 10986372 142614.00 { KK } [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I know what he meant my [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] was referring to 4% making it a 'tougher' decision.
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Linear Mode
