AQ against scary board

[Shillx]

No it is good to fight the norm. There are many times where posters are wrong (myself included) yet don't know it. There are just times both in hold'em and life where you pass up on an edge to exploit a bigger edge later. This is basically what is going on this in hand.

The decision is a lot closer with something like a straight or a small flush. With a set you would always drive forward on the flop because there is both a good chance that you have the best hand + you will fill up about 33% of the time. A flush is also probably worth driving because now anyone with a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only has 7 outs to the winner. The odds that a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls when you have 2 offsuit cards is...

p = 1 - 37/47*36/46 = 38.4%

When you hold 2 of the said suit...

p = 1 - 39/47*38/46 = 31.4%

So when you combine that with the fact that a small flush can beat all 2-pair/trips hands that TPTK can't, you can begin to see why gassing with a flush makes more sense. The hand that is tough to play is a straight. It depends on a lot of factors and it is IMO beyond the scope of this post. Maybe an idea for a later post will focus around the EV on 3 flush boards. I dunno we will see.