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  #1  
Old 10-04-2007, 05:36 AM
Altreg Altreg is offline
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Default formula 2 calculate EV?

Hey all
My question is-what is right formula for calculating EV on my play?

lets say pot is 20bb HU,my opponent have 30% fold equity,when he calls i bet 10 bb and i will win pot 20% of the time is this correct formula?-

EV=0.3x20+0.7x((20+10)x0.2-0.8x10))

thank you
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  #2  
Old 10-04-2007, 03:53 PM
sixhigh sixhigh is offline
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Default Re: formula 2 calculate EV?

<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font> I'm not sure I understand you correctly, I'll give you a general formula. Say the size of the pot is p, your fold equity is f, your equity against his calling range is e, the size of your bet is b and there wont be any more betting after he calls your bet.

Then the EV on your bet will be as follows:

EV = f*p +(1-f)*(e*(p+b) + (1-e)*(-b))

with the numbers you gave:

30%*20 + 70% * (20%*(30) + 80%*(-10))

which is exactly what you got there.
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  #3  
Old 10-05-2007, 12:26 AM
Altreg Altreg is offline
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Default Re: formula 2 calculate EV?

ok,thank you

now another one,this is 50bb in the pot on the 4rth street -he raises17bb, i re-raise all-in(another 53bb),hes fold equity is 35%,and when he calls my all-in he wins 70% of the time ,check my math is this correct or not?--

EV=0.35*50+0.65*((50+17+53+70)*0.30-0.70*70

thank you for reply
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  #4  
Old 10-05-2007, 11:26 AM
sixhigh sixhigh is offline
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Default Re: formula 2 calculate EV?

<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font>In case he folds you gain the pot and his bet (+50 +17)

In case he calls two there are two possibilities:
30% of the time, you will win the pot, his bet and his call of your raise (+50 +17 +53)
70% of the time you lose your raise (-70)

-&gt; 35%*(67) + 65%*(30%*(120) - 70%*(70)) = 15
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  #5  
Old 10-06-2007, 12:31 AM
Altreg Altreg is offline
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Default Re: formula 2 calculate EV?

oh,ok
this is what i meant

thank you very much 4 your reply
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  #6  
Old 10-07-2007, 01:48 AM
Altreg Altreg is offline
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Default Re: formula 2 calculate EV?

here is another one

pot is 80bb after the turn,i check-call river bet 30bb and have 25% chaince to win. Is this correct calculation of my EV-

EV=(80+30+30)*0.25-0.75*30

or i dont need 2 include my bet-call in this and it will be like that-

EV=(80+30)*0.25-0.75*30

thank you
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