Bluffing

[members_only]

Villain seems competent and aggressive over small sample size. He 3-bet me once bvb and I folded. I have done nothing out of the ordinary.

By my calculations I am betting $33 to win $22, so this has to work 60% of the time to break even. (Not taking into account any equity I might have against his calling range, which presumably isn't much.)

What do you guys think?

(Apologies for self-converted HH, that website that does ipoker isn't working today.)

GAME #711779184: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2007-11-05 18:29:56
Table Kloof
Seat 3: freroll ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 5: vict75 ($50.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Hamara ($50.35 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: HERO ($85.62 in chips)
Seat 10: VILLAIN ($49.70 in chips)
HERO: Post SB $0.25
VILLAIN: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
freroll: Fold
vict75: Fold
Hamara: Fold
HERO: Raise to $1.75
VILLAIN: Call $1.25
*** FLOP *** [5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO: Check
VILLAIN: Check
*** TURN *** [2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO: Bet $3.00
VILLAIN: Raise to $15.00
HERO: Raise to $63.00 (VILLAIN has $33 behind)