Call or fold to river bet when you are almost sure you are beat?

[MortenB]

Setting: Typical small stakes game online. No specific reads on any player.

Hand: You open-limp with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the position just before the cut-off. SB calls, BB checks. (3 small bets pot).

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] giving you the nut flush.
SB bets, BB calls, you call. (3 BB pot)

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB bets, BB calls, you raise. SB and BB calls. (9BB pot)

River is 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB bets, BB folds. (10 BB pot)

Call or fold?

Two possible "solutions" to this:
1:
- Even if you most likely are beind, this is a standard call. You must call 1 BB to potentially win 11 BB, and you cannot with 91% (1/11) certainty put your opponent on a K or 5 for a full house.
- Your opponent can have a lower flush, a pocket pair or be on a pure bluff - in all these cases you will win.
- Folding in this situation is a big error/leak since you could lose a big pot. You only have to win 1 of 11 times to break-even on the call, and in reality you will win much more often.

2:
- This is a marginal and tricky situation, both call and fold could be right, this is read and table dependant.
- Without any reads, a fold is probably better since you are normally more than 91% certain that your opponent has a full house given the action in the hand (particularly since he called the turn-raise, signalling he is not bluffing)
- Many new players tend to wrongly call in these situation with the only argument "it's a big pot". They can get away with this on lower limits, but this can turn into a significant leak on higher limits.

Any input would be helpful. (The hand is simliar to the example on page 150 in SSH)

[Bill C]

I don't think you are "most likely behind".
You should have raised on the flop.
The fact that you were just called on the turn makes it unlikely that anybody had a set at that point, and 55 or 5X isn't too likely, either.

No way can you just fold this hand on the river getting 11/1. At the very least call it down. And I think a pretty good case can be made for raising if you can get away from it if re-raised.

Just my $.02 worth...

bc

[sean c]

Morten raise pre flop from such a late position or fold.

I raise that flop also.

[MortenB]

[ QUOTE ]
Morten raise pre flop from such a late position or fold.

I raise that flop also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree. And I understand it's hard to say how the river should be played when the hand has been played poorly pre-flop and on the flop.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Morten raise pre flop from such a late position or fold.

I raise that flop also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree. And I understand it's hard to say how the river should be played when the hand has been played poorly pre-flop and on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Morten on the river your almost never good here but given the pot size you don't have to be good very often to call. It is probably pretty close either way and not a very big deal. I probably call for piece of mind and expect to lose almost always.

[MortenB]

[ QUOTE ]

Morten on the river your almost never good here but given the pot size you don't have to be good very often to call. It is probably pretty close either way and not a very big deal. I probably call for piece of mind and expect to lose almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott, thanks for the comments. So you are saying it is a close decision, and both fold and call could be right.

What I fail to understand is how this hand is so different from the hand in Small Stakes Holdem on page 150, where Ed Miller reccomends a clear call.

In both hands there are two pair on the board. In both hands you have the nut flush. In both hands you put your opponent on a full house.

The difference is that in SSH, the pot is lager (20 big bets), which should lead you to call more often. But in SSH, you are also up against two opponents, one yet to act behind you, which should lead you to fold more often.

Still, this is the one example given in SSH where it is correct to call to a river bet since the pot is large. Why is that such a clear call, when my hand is borderline?

Thanks.