I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?

[tightymcfish]

I think calling here hoping to catch something on the flop is terrible with my stack size.
I have seen him limp Q10s utg and KQo and call a raise then stack off with top pair.

[sapsuckah]

I would need to have a pretty damn good read not to shove this.

In my experience, the guys who limp tons of hands hoping to hit a flop are the same ones who think any A is raise-worthy, regardless of position.

I shove here and hope to be dominating when he calls with A9 or win the race when he calls with 66.

[black666]

Let's do the math ... I'll stick with my raising range of AJ+,88+ .. once you push let's say that villain calls with AQ+,JJ+. So villain raises 69 hands and calls your push with 39 of them - that's 56%

If you shove and villain folds, you have 7.800 chips
If you shove get called and win, you have 12.600 chips
If villain calls, you are a 33% favorite to win the pot.

0.44 x 7800 + 0.56 x 0.33 x 12600 = 5760

So you are losing 240 chips on average with this shove

Let's try it, if villain calls the shove with AJ+,TT+. Now he is calling with 57 hands of his 69 hand raising range (83%) and once he calls, you are a 42% underdog.

0.17 x 7800 + 0.83 x 0.42 x 12600 = 5718

Not much better .. still a loss of 382 chips on average.

Now let's see what happens if villain calls with his whole range

0.43 x 12600 = 5418 even worse -EV

Going with your read I'd say that villain calls pretty wide here which makes a shove -EV unless you adjust the raising range.

[tightymcfish]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's do the math ... I'll stick with my raising range of AJ+,88+ .. once you push let's say that villain calls with AQ+,JJ+. So villain raises 69 hands and calls your push with 39 of them - that's 56%

If you shove and villain folds, you have 7.800 chips
If you shove get called and win, you have 12.600 chips
If villain calls, you are a 33% favorite to win the pot.

0.44 x 7800 + 0.56 x 0.33 x 12600 = 5760

So you are losing 240 chips on average with this shove

Let's try it, if villain calls the shove with AJ+,TT+. Now he is calling with 57 hands of his 69 hand raising range (83%) and once he calls, you are a 42% underdog.

0.17 x 7800 + 0.83 x 0.42 x 12600 = 5718

Not much better .. still a loss of 382 chips on average.

Now let's see what happens if villain calls with his whole range

0.43 x 12600 = 5418 even worse -EV

Going with your read I'd say that villain calls pretty wide here which makes a shove -EV unless you adjust the raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]
Excellent post. You are correct sir.
I timed down and shoved cuz i was tired even thought i was thinking in my head to fold. He called with AA and I busted out.