First Antoine Walker, Now Eddy Curry

[NT!]

sure, you can argue that his rising OPS against LHP is indicative of actual improvement. you can also just as easily argue that it represents a peak, and for a power hitter on the wrong side of 30 who is carrying about 40 extra pounds to the batter's box, it's not at all hard to argue that he's in decline, and his numbers vs. LHP are going to be among the first areas to go.

there is no doubt that he's having some 'bad luck' or running bad or whatever you want to call it. his BABIP vs. LHP is 60 points below what it is vs. RHP. he's hurt, too, and there's no reason not to think that's playing a part.

and when you're running bad, you're hurt and you're missing some of the physical tools you once had, you make adjustments. there must be a certain point where the likelihood of executing a swinging bunt against the shift is preferable to whatever approach you are using, the argument is whether, right now, it's optimal for ortiz to mix it in. i think it's worth a shot, not just because it's +EV in a vacuum if he can execute it with some consistency, but also because it may force pitchers and defenses to change their approach and shake up a routine against him that seems to be working.

[Vyse]

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sure, you can argue that his rising OPS against LHP is indicative of actual improvement. you can also just as easily argue that it represents a peak, and for a power hitter on the wrong side of 30 who is carrying about 40 extra pounds to the batter's box, it's not at all hard to argue that he's in decline, and his numbers vs. LHP are going to be among the first areas to go.

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How can you "just as easily" argue that, essentially, 112 AB is more indicative of his true skill against lefties than 605 AB? If Ortiz is in decline -- more specifically, if Ortiz is in a precipitous decline, which would be needed to explain away his poor performance versus lefties this season -- why does he still have a 1:1 K/BB ratio, a .433 OBP, and is otherwise hitting righties better than he ever has in his career?

Really, the more I look at the numbers, the more it seems probable that this season isn't necessarily the beginning of a decline phase, because the only part of Ortiz that has "declined" is his power against lefties, and even to that end we don't truly know because the sample size is so small and he's been victimized by a bit of bad luck. The truth is probably somewhere in between his 04 and 05 numbers (I'd lean more towards 05), but I don't see how, presented with the evidence at hand, one could seriously "just as easily" argue that not only has Ortiz hit his peak (maybe), but right after hitting his peak he is flat-out horrible against lefties all of a sudden (almost a definitive no).

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and when you're running bad, you're hurt and you're missing some of the physical tools you once had, you make adjustments.

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in this case i think occam's razor has a place: there's no need to look beyond the obvious answer here that it's simply a small sample size problem and he will regress to his established mean of performance against lefties from the last three seasons. anything else seems like an unnecessary leap of faith.

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there must be a certain point where the likelihood of executing a swinging bunt against the shift is preferable to whatever approach you are using

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obviously there must be, but i don't think there's any reason to think this is the point you can reliably make that decision. there aren't a ton of things one can "reliably" say about baseball even four months in, and when an even further diluted sample size is called into play, you definitely can't make such a statement about a topic such as this. and anyway, as I said earlier, a .364 OBP is still quite fine and above averag, and even if you accept his power is dead against lefties, given "normal" batting average luck that OBP would be even higher, probably around .380, which is decidedly above average.

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the argument is whether, right now, it's optimal for ortiz to mix it in. i think it's worth a shot, not just because it's +EV in a vacuum if he can execute it with some consistency, but also because it may force pitchers and defenses to change their approach and shake up a routine against him that seems to be working.

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seems being the key word. i don't know why it should or would bother you or ortiz or whomever any more than any other defensive alignment, as one has to expect the defense to use the best possible defensive alignment to impede the potential of a batter getting a hit. when you start playing back simply to fight a shift is where i believe you enter dangerous territories -- you're coming dangerously close to blaming ortiz' poor performance this season against lefties due to the shift.

[THAY3R]

You guys are both morons.


Also, if Ortiz is at a point where a bunt is more effective than a proper at bat, he shouldn't be DH'ing against LHP.

[Vyse]

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You guys are both morons.

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Too basic, Thayer. Try harder.

[NT!]

definitely not blaming his poor hitting vs lefties on the shift. the affect of the shift when facing RHP or LHP probably doesn't differ much, and he's hitting RHP as well as ever.

what i had in mind was that it might force pitchers to change their approach against him if he can take those outside fastballs or breaking balls the other way from time to time. watching LHP approach him now, it seems like they are all doing roughly the same thing, and it's working.

basically suggesting that, if he continues to put up a sub-.700 OPS vs LHP for much longer, hitting against the shift becomes less and less -EV if he can execute it properly because his expected performance in that scenario isn't good enough that you're giving up much. i think it's a mix of running bad and being hurt. despite what he says, i expect him to keep being somewhat hurt until he gets surgery on that knee, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him fail to improve much. if that's the case, a swinging bunt from time to time becomes more and more attractive.

[NT!]

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You guys are both morons.


Also, if Ortiz is at a point where a bunt is more effective than a proper at bat, he shouldn't be DH'ing against LHP.

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thanks for your contribution, i'd love to hear your advanced opinion about this one thayer

[Vyse]

if he's so hurt, why is he still raping RPs?

[THAY3R]

The Red Sox are a pretty smart organization. You guys can both use tiny sample sized data to support your arguments but the bottom line is Ortiz would be bunting if it were more effective.

[Suigin406]

this thread came up a while ago while power hitters like ortiz and delgado don't bunt against the shift..from the arguments, i think ortiz had to be insanely effective at bunting in order for it to be +EV and for the most part, he was playing into the other team's favor...

that being said, i would love to see delgado drop more bunts down, don't know how honest it would keep the defense, but the shift [censored] pisses me off

[Vyse]

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The Red Sox are a pretty smart organization. You guys can both use tiny sample sized data to support your arguments but the bottom line is Ortiz would be bunting if it were more effective.

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That's really not saying anything at all re: me being a moron.