Bodog DJIA Prop Bet

[AvivaSimplex]

Intrade offers odds on the DJIA ending December at different levels. The current midpoints (halfway between the bid and ask):

>13500 - 62.5
>13750 - 54.5
>14000 - 44.75

Based on this, every 100 points is worth about 4%. The DJIA is about to close at 13800 today. It's 50-50 that it will be above or below that level in 2 months. Moving 200 points to below 13600 is 8%, so 42-58. If you convert 42% to American odds, you can see the true line should be +138. +170 is a large overlay.

Bodog could easily price this better, but they very often offer overlays on their prop bets.