Interesting Super Bowl bet?

[CD73]

I wouldn't lay off the AFC -15 1/2. Remember, Brady could take one bed step and be out the year! Also, not sure the PATS are really a cold weather team anymore with there COLTS 4.0 Offense! NE gets cold and Snow come playoff time! Pittsburgh/Jacksonvile would eat there lunch in a real crappy weather game where running was key!

[ClarkNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side?

I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would it be the opposite. If the Pats lose in the AFC playoffs, then the NFC +15.5 will be, what, at least a touchdown higher than the actual line?

FWIW, the total is 55.

Also, there's a "no" on win the superbowl at +160 for those who think it's good value.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side?

I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would it be the opposite. If the Pats lose in the AFC playoffs, then the NFC +15.5 will be, what, at least a touchdown higher than the actual line?

FWIW, the total is 55.

Also, there's a "no" on win the superbowl at +160 for those who think it's good value.

[/ QUOTE ]
Man, you just don't get it...

[ClarkNasty]

obv

[Thremp]

Clark I don't think you really understand the probability behind what your doing (not that I'm an expert on this either, NFL futures isn't my thing), but this line of thinking will lead you to many profitable bets. An example that I dicussed with my colored friend, trixtrix, (who may stab me for sharing this) was of betting Indy +6 and the ML on NE at -185 or so. This is a very profitable middle opp and obv one that would have hit.

You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

Daliman's reason for not liking this bet are pretty poor.

[ClarkNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Obviously I'm out in left field on this one though.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Obviously I'm out in left field on this one though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly since that NE line is horrid.

[ClarkNasty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Obviously I'm out in left field on this one though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly since that NE line is horrid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but the question wasn't about the exact line, it was about the concept. Apparently that wasn't obvious.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Obviously I'm out in left field on this one though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly since that NE line is horrid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but the question wasn't about the exact line, it was about the concept. Apparently that wasn't obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep telling yourself that.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Clark I don't think you really understand the probability behind what your doing (not that I'm an expert on this either, NFL futures isn't my thing), but this line of thinking will lead you to many profitable bets. An example that I dicussed with my colored friend, trixtrix, (who may stab me for sharing this) was of betting Indy +6 and the ML on NE at -185 or so. This is a very profitable middle opp and obv one that would have hit.

You're looking at something similar but it isn't really the same idea. You need to weight a NE SB chance with the line you'll expect to see along with other probabilities and lines.

Daliman's reason for not liking this bet are pretty poor.

[/ QUOTE ]
At what point did I say I do not like this bet?

I would, however, like to apologize for misinterpreting the initial post, thinking he was looking at taking the -200 and the -15.5. Sorry about that, no wonder you seemed so out-of-it; because I was.
Dang newborn eating into my sleep...... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

FWIW now that I am looking at it properly, I think the bet may have some good merit to it.