stars 1/2 - qq in capped preflop pot with k on flop

[JSampras1]

In 300 hands Villain is 33% VPIP, 9.3% Pf raise, AF 2.00.

I don't really have any notes on him. If this pot wasn't so huge, i guess i could just fold. But given that he's obviously not a great player, he could be overplaying TT or JJ, or maybe AQ i guess. If i just felt this, isn't that a really weak play?

On the turn, I figured the K was actually a good card because it's less likely he has a king, so at that point i'm just calling down and hoping to see JJ.

Anyway what do you think of my line here?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls

[LukeSLTS]

I am with you preflop and on the flop.

You check/raised the flop so checking the turn is awkward. I lead out and b/f the turn. If you get called on the turn I would check/call because the pot is large and I am behind most of villains range at this point. The only worse hands that will call if I bet is JJ or TT.

[Dankenstein]

IF you have no notes on him and only those stats for a read, what obviously makes him not a good player ? Only thing I see wrong with his stats is that he his vpip is slightly high. Someone who has really good postflop play will be able to get away with a higher vpip.

[sean c]

Your getting taken to value town on the turn and river by check/calling both streets.

[JJack]

intersting hand.
at flop you have about 40 equity vs PFR

Board: Kd 7d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.824% 59.50% 01.33% 21205 472.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.176% 37.85% 01.33% 13490 472.50 { QcQh }

Also you beat only JJ and less probably TT or AQs.
I also dont see many hands at limper range that we need protect our hand vs him (A7s, A5s - any suited diamonds will call anyway) even that pot is large.

Also what you do if PFR will 3bet flop?
You dont have enought impied odds to catch your 1.5-2 outs to set QQQ and I dont like raise/fold line.

I think I would just call down.

[Daniel Magix]

I could be way off, but after a CR on the flop, and when the 2nd K hits and you feel this is good for you, shouldn't you be leading the Turn?

I think has has AA or AK - maybe even KQs (not sure of how high 9.3% PFR really is) more often here than JJ.

EDIT - after thinking about his AF some more (2 is pretty high, yes?) - wouldn't he 3bet AK or AA on that flop? Maybe something like JJ is not that out of the question, the more I think about it. Hmm, confusing.

[sean c]

Being OOP I grit my teeth curse my luck and bet/fold all three streets.

[calidris]

[ QUOTE ]
Only thing I see wrong with his stats is that he his vpip is slightly high. Someone who has really good postflop play will be able to get away with a higher vpip.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Slightly" high? 33% basically means that he's playing Ax, mid unsuited connectors and suited one gappers from any postition. That's not slightly loose, that's speewing money.

[KaatzMeow]

Grunch:

After CO caps Preflop, I put his range as QQ+, JTs+,AQ+, AJs+,KQo. I put UTG+2 range is 20% less prem hands so we have 45% equity.

Flop: As everyone advocates here, we C/R and fold out UTG+2 and CO just calls which is a good sign so far. Our equite dropped to 36% but given the fact that Villain has not raised us yet is a good sign.

Turn: That K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is good for us and our equity jumps to 46% against Villain's range. Our choice is to b/f or c/c. In real life I would c/c to SD but am trying to get my W$SD number to improve and this is probably a leak.

[LukeSLTS]

[ QUOTE ]
after thinking about his AF some more (2 is pretty high, yes?) - wouldn't he 3bet AK or AA on that flop? Maybe something like JJ is not that out of the question, the more I think about it. Hmm, confusing.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might three bet the flop or he might for the turn to raise for value. This is why I think it is crucial to lead the turn here. On the turn he is going to call down with TT-AA (I am ignoring the possibility of KK), and he is going to raise AK, KQ. We define his range pretty well with our turn lead against non-tricky players.