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  #71  
Old 10-26-2007, 04:49 PM
kcheel kcheel is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

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He will call because our line looks bluffy but he will never shove because our line looks bluffy?

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12/6/1.5

12/6 does not bet/3-bet bluff the river laying 3:1 ever. obv if he has a decent hand he would just call if he suspected a bluff, rather than shoving and losing more vs better hands and the same amount vs bluffs

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I don't generally take part in most discussion threads, as I don't feel qualified to do it. But I have to agree with what Doc said there.

My stats are pretty close to villains in Hand 1 (yes, I know I suck, I am working on it) and I would never 3 bet the river in that spot unless I was really strong. Would just call if I thought I was picking off a bluff.
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  #72  
Old 10-26-2007, 05:05 PM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

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That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

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alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

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what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty.

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please show me an HH of treysfull bet/3-betting the river with air
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  #73  
Old 10-26-2007, 05:58 PM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

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You're dead wrong here if you think he EVER takes this line as a bluff.

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I agree he'll almost never show up with a bluff here. How often is he value-betting worse? Specifically, imagine he has JJ/QQ -- what % of the time does he shove?
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  #74  
Old 10-26-2007, 06:02 PM
ASPoker8 ASPoker8 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

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You're dead wrong here if you think he EVER takes this line as a bluff.

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I agree he'll almost never show up with a bluff here. How often is he value-betting worse? Specifically, imagine he has JJ/QQ -- what % of the time does he shove?

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Assuming he is a typical 12/6/1.5, close to never in my opinion
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  #75  
Old 10-26-2007, 06:19 PM
CalledDownLight CalledDownLight is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

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That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

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what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty.

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please show me an HH of treysfull bet/3-betting the river with air

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how can I search for this in PT?
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  #76  
Old 10-26-2007, 07:45 PM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're dead wrong here if you think he EVER takes this line as a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree he'll almost never show up with a bluff here. How often is he value-betting worse? Specifically, imagine he has JJ/QQ -- what % of the time does he shove?

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Assuming he is a typical 12/6/1.5, close to never in my opinion

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If "close to never" < 1 time in 12, then good fold.
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  #77  
Old 10-27-2007, 12:24 AM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

please show me an HH of treysfull bet/3-betting the river with air

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how can I search for this in PT?

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bring up his stats and filter for went to showdown and lost (since he obv would have lost if he got called) and look for big pots. i think you can also filter for hands where he bet the river
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  #78  
Old 10-27-2007, 01:18 AM
jack frost jack frost is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 669
Default Re: 200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

please show me an HH of treysfull bet/3-betting the river with air

[/ QUOTE ]

Trey's is 99.999999999999999999999999999999999% never 3 bet bluffing river!
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