Deceptively Interesting River Decision

[Irish Mafia]

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This definitely depends a lot on Hero's 3betting frequency and Villain's propensity to float. However, here's what I think:

Villain's pf range is probably something like TT+, KQs, AJs+, AQo+

Flop: Villain calls Hero's cbet. This probably isn't AJ/AQ, but could definitely be anything else if Hero 3bets as light as I do. I'll take JJ out of the equation too. Also, I think AA most likely raises the flop. TT might raise the flop but could call.

Turn: Villain checks. He can still have TT, QQ, AK, AQss, AJss, KQs. 99 and TT just hit boats and there's only a PSB left so they would probably slowplay. KQ/AK might bet but also might check, and QQ is definitely checking behind to get to showdown.

River: Js eliminates the possibility of AJss. If we check, our hand is pretty ambiguous. Villain will probably value-bet his entire range minus AK, because all it beats AK, a hand we could easily be holding, and none of it loses to anything we could conceivably have (I think).

So:
QQ/KQs - 4 combos (we win)
TT/AQss/KK - 5 combos (we lose)

So c/c looks like the right play to me.

If he's a nit postflop and won't vbet QQ or KQ here, it's probably a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cow Pig, your avatar is amazing.

[rand]

lol

i vbet river against a passive opponent and c/c against an aggro player, depending on history flow etc i may cr for value

this guy, 19/15/2.5 is pretty close to the cut off for those two players but i think hes aggro enough to vbet a k and bluff here, our line looks pretty weak i think-im assuming 100bbs deep at 3,6

[Usagi_yo]

I'm going to think this through with my poker thinking process and write it down. Comments welcome.

1. (pre-flop) AQs, nice hand, out of position (SB), facing a raise from TAG player. Am I raising to re-steal or do I think I have the better hand here? I think I'm raising to re-steal and or thinking that I'm raising a hand that has a good chance of being two overcards to villians PP.

2. (post flop) Villian didn't re-raise pre-flop. I can discount AA most of the time now. I continue on with a follow thru bet and get called. This flat calls to me means my opponant is likely to have a hand that can either complete with 1 card, or is of sufficient strength to hold up on its own, and or can actually be a monster.

3. (Turn) Top card on the board pairs. And I check and villian checks. Had I bet, I think I might have gotten more information, or won the pot right there. Instead it looks like somebody is afraid to bet and the other player is glad of it. That combined with the pre-flop flat call, the post flop flat call spells out to me a draw of some sort at least. Does opponant have AQs? AsKx, QQ? A9s? QJS (we don't know the river card yet) AsJx? or is he super slowplaying KK?

4. (River) I make straight, but 3rd spade hits and the board is paired. I'm out of position and my opponant was likely on a draw. Right now I'm thinking what hands can I extract a value bet from and for how much. Hands like AA, QQ, even QJo. What hands are my opponant going to raise my value bet with? KJ, AsQs, KK and perhaps KT, K9. What hands that beat me is my opponant just going to call with? TT, 99, KT, K9. What hands that I beat is my opponant likely to value bet with? AK, AQo (tie), QJo, AA.

5. In the end, I'm going to decide to value bet from 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. Perhaps $175. I'm going to fold to any raise. But on some days I will say that I will check call a seemingly apparant value bet from an opponant, and fold if my opponant is make overbets or pot sized bets on the river here.

[Usagi_yo]

Can somebody define a PSB here?

[Chino Brown]

pot-sized bet

[AwwInBaby]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For those who want to c/f, do you really think you're beat over 67% of the time he shoves?

[/ QUOTE ] At higher stakes this is def closer, i think at 3/6 the normal tag will get his money in before this if he is going to bluff/semi bluff. The flop is not exactly a great flop to float, so i think if he bets now after he checks behind the turn for pot control, after we check, he almost certainly has us.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh.... no