200/400 v Benyamine. River (bluff?) Shove

[Orlando Salazar]

This is about as pretty as that 10d7d preflop 3bet and river shove against Ram.

[AlfilRey]

The river shove as a bluff / to fold out any split pot possibilites depends on a bunch of things. What level do you think he's on and does he think you're on? I mean it's the classic weak player slowplay of a hand like a house the way you've played it, but although he will realise this, it may only serve to convince him that you have it, as he may think that you want him to believe you have a weak hand by taking the "if any weak player took this line he would have a monster almost every time" approach. Of course, he could be one level up, and realise all this, and then call because he believes that what I've just said is your thought process and so you could make him fold a lot of better hands than yours. This would mean that pushing would be worthwhile because in your opinion he has to feel you're so strong that the extra $$ risked is worthwhile in return for the much larger % of the time that you win the pot. So this depends on the levels of thought, and obviously nobody can answer this question better than you.

However, putting aside what I feel is the most important factor in your decision (what I discussed above), I don't really see the value in pushing because...

...from his perspective, when he bets the river there are three possibilities:

1. He is bluffing -- obviously the call is better if you think he's more than likely bluffing, as he will only call you the rare times that your take on the situation is wrong.

2. He is betting a monster -- bluffing is obviously wrong.

3. He is betting what he thinks is the best hand, but it's a hand that he will fold to an all-in raise -- the profitability of your play hinges on what % of the time you think he has this type of hand.

The % of the time he bets the $14,000 that he bet with this type of hand is, in my opinion, not large enough to merit the push.

Reasons for this:

1. How often you are capable of bluffing in this spot to his bet. The less he thinks you will bluff in this spot then the more likely it is he is making a thin valuebet.

2. How often you will pay off the river with a hand that JJ+ has beat. I doubt it's that often, given the line of call-call on the flop/turn.

3. How often he thinks you will bluff the river if checked to (not very often I would imagine, given your line).

4. Also, given the size of the pot, I would have thought something like $18-$19k is more common with a JJ+ type hand, though I wouldn't assign this too much importance.

In fact, I could keep on listing factors that make the decision such an interesting and close one. For metagame, this is probably great, especially because Benyamine will get rattled by your play REGARDLESS of whether he was bluffing or not.

[KRANTZ]

god this is a horrible value shove... it's a bluff, obviously, wtf

i dont rail these games but ill chime in with the fact that its more likely you have a boat or a hand like you do, that realizes it might not be good, than a flush... but the side pot thing is kind of interesting

[PokerFink]

JMan,

The first thing I thought of was Strasser's comment (in a thread about playing Ivey HU) about reducing the polarity of his big river bets. I think this is a great metagame play, assuming you play Benyamine enough. Short-term only, I like a call better.

-fink

[durrrr]

o so stnd

[NoahSD]

I have no idea what's going on postflop. Is preflop standard for you? I'd 3-bet.

[El Diablo]

J,

How does his river half-pot influence the range you put him on?

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what's going on postflop. Is preflop standard for you? I'd 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first thing I thought also. DB can profitable isolate the short stack with any two cards, so especially with a hand like ATo that doesn't play great post-flop for 150 BB's, I'm inclined to make it like 7K pre-flop and try to freeroll against the short stack.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Disagree. I'd rather call, with position, closing the action. Who says AT doesnt play well postflop? It's not the cards that play postflop, it's the people. I think playing AT here is definitely profitable, assuming JMan is better than DB. And if he isn't, why would he be in this game in the first place?

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what's going on postflop. Is preflop standard for you? I'd 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first thing I thought also. DB can profitable isolate the short stack with any two cards, so especially with a hand like ATo that doesn't play great post-flop for 150 BB's, I'm inclined to make it like 7K pre-flop and try to freeroll against the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if benyamine is expecting this, and 4bets you very very light? that would be an extremely likely scenario, given:

a) how aggro benyamine is
b)it's obvious you want to isolate
c) now not only freerolling but free dead money to boot

i prefer a call with position given this likely possibility, imo.