2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Scary_Tiger]

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When you say 'above average', are you referring to his career record of 59-58. Sure he can be lights out when he's on, but as a longtime Jays follower I can tell you that there's been too many times where's he been knocked around which prevented him from finding a groove.

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When I say 'above average' I mean he is better than the average starting pitcher in MLB.

[Propertarian]

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Zim,
Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find.


[/ QUOTE ] Nice explanation. Let me add this: Right now teams use five starting pitchers full time, contrary to another positions in which one player is full-time. Because of this, a rotation with 4 league average starting pitchers and one above average pitcher is above average.

Also, a league average starting pitcher is an above average 4 or 5 starter.

All of these comments really boil down to the concept of replacement level: Who is being moved out of the rotation by signing a "league average" starting pitcher? It is the five starter, not the 2 or 3 starter. What is this player adding to my team?

I'm a Cubs fan and I really like the Lilly signing. He's a better bet than Meche, and Lilly pushes out a replacement level player from the rotation. Unfortunately, they added a replacement level pitcher by signing Marquis a couple of days later...

[vin17]

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Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find.

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You're right, only considering a pitcher's ERA would be an inappropriate method of analyzing a pitcher as they may have received a below average amount of run support.

But would you care to provide the stats for the average American League Pitcher and then compare them to Lilly's? Or would you intend on comparing his to the average Major League pitcher, since there is a somewhat significant difference between the two leagues (one is more predominently a 'slugfest' to put it simply, while the other is a more tactical approach to grinding out runs).

One might say that pitching in the toughest division in baseball has skewed his stats somewhat, but when you consider that Lilly has excellent averages against the Red Sox (not sure about the Yankees, although they're probably not as spectacular), the logic seems to fall short.

Another important aspect is durability. Lilly's career has been marked by injuries that have landed him on both the 15 and 60 day DL on more than one occasion.

Take his former teammate Doc Halladay, an absolute horse. He is about as close to a guaranteed win as you can get, needing little run support to consistently give his team a chance to win. Btw, he's due to make 13 million in '07. Now take AJ Burnett, a pitcher whose career average is similar to Lilly's. Both have shown flashes of brilliance, but have been unable to string together successive, consistent starts together (as well as having been hit by injuries). However, the major difference is that Burnett's 'stuff' is on a level above Lilly's, thus labelling him as ace-type talent. Burnett's fastball and curve can be devastating at times while Lilly's go to pitch is the 12-6 curve, but when he's off and leaving them in the middle of the plate, lookout. Burnett is scheduled to make 11 mil in '07 and last year JP was criticized by many for overpaying somewhat significantly for Burnett. This year, if AJ was on the market you could forget about 11 as starting bids would be coming in at 14-15 (after Lilly gets 10). One could say that it's simply the market, which is probably also going to be the explanation when Zito gets 100+ million over 6+ years which is absolutely asinine.

If you were to list all of the 10 million dollar pitchers and include Lilly on it and then compare them, I gurarantee you he would be at the bottom. Of course, Lilly could finally find himself with the Cubbies as there seems to be a trend (read: Wood, Prior) with new Chicago pitchers having a great first year and them bombing with injuries/inconsistences. In which case I will be proven wrong, but if I had a choice 9 times out of 10 I would be betting on him having yet another season of mediocrity.

[vin17]

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Because of this, a rotation with 4 league average starting pitchers and one above average pitcher is above average.

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Again, I'd be interested in knowing the stats for a typical ML starter. And wouldn't teams hope to have two abover average, two average and one below average pitcher in their rotation?

I agree, until I see otherwise, Meche is worth no more than Lilly. Lol at him now being the 'Royal's ace.' That's their staff for ya.

[Propertarian]

The average ERA for an AL starting pitcher over the past four seasons is just about an even 5;however, Lilly is even better than an ERA comparision would show, because Toronto is a hitter's park. We can also question the range of the Jays D in 04-05.

FYI-The ERA for starters is higher than relievers. The AL ERA overall was 4.59 last year.

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If you were to list all of the 10 million dollar pitchers and include Lilly on it and then compare them, I gurarantee you he would be at the bottom.

[/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but Lilly makes exactly 10 mil a year, and he just signed his contract. Schmidt got over 15 mil a year, Padilla over 11, Meche 11, Suppan will get 11...I think lilly is the best bargain of the bunch, but my point is simply that the market now for pitching isn't the same as what it was 3 years ago, or last year.

[vin17]

If playing in a hitter-friendly park such as Roger's Centre has altered Lilly's stats compared to if he were pitching in an average size park, then what explains Lilly's dominance of the Red Sox at the shoebox known as Fenway? I think playing them 8+ times over the past few years is a large enough sample size. Does he just 'have their number'? If so, then what explains his road ERA of 4.96 compared to just 4.15 at home over the last 3 years?

[Pudge714]

Vin,
There are serious sample size issues in citing his stats against the Red Sox.
The market has changed this year you can't compare contracts signed last year to ones signed this year.
Halladay and Burnett both have injury problem as well.
Rogers Centre is a hitters park.
As Propertarian said AL Starters ERA > AL Pitchers ERA
Lilly's biggest problem is his walk rate.
Lilly isn't mediocre. He is good last year by VORP he was the 69th best pitcher in all of baseball. Guys like Lilly aren't easily replaceable.

[cognito20]

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The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.

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He's a top-10 MVP candidate and a Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder, one of the most underrated players in baseball. I'm glad we kept him, and it's not like Rogers can't afford it anyway.

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Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly,

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Well, Lilly is well above average whenever he pitches against the Red Sox. He owns Boston. Against every other team in the league, he's average on a good day. No big loss. We have guys like Marcum, Janssen, and McGowan who are ready to replace him.

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and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts.

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When he does pitch, he's very good, and he's about due to have an injury-free year. I think we paid too much for him last year, mind you, but he's a solid #2 when he's in the lineup.

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Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape.

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Chacin is far better than a replacement-level pitcher. Your assessment of Lilly as an above-average pitcher would be far more accurate if applied to Chacin. The real problems in our rotation, which are now gone, were the fact that our #4 starter, Lilly, couldn't beat any team except Boston, and our #5 guy most of the year, Towers, couldn't beat anybody at all. Any 2 random kids from Syracuse will be a huge improvement over those 2 yahoos, and McGowan has a chance to be -really- good.

The only one of the pitchers who's gone that I'm upset about losing is Speier, and everyone knew he was leaving after the 2006 season anyway.

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In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team.

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I don't know what Jays team you were watching last year, but the bullpen, other than Ryan and the now-departed Speier (he signed with the Angels during the off-season), was one of the major -weaknesses- of the Blue Jays team, and the main reason along with the gaping hole at the end of the rotation that we didn't give the Yankees more of a run. I don't know how many times last year I saw the Jays get out to an early lead and then watch Chulk, Schoeneweis, Frasor et al. piss it away with horrible long relief. Tallet and League are OK but nothing special, although League's 100-mph fastball is nasty on the few occasions he manages to get it in the general vicinity of home plate. Downs is mediocre, although he does have the added value of being able to be a spot starter as well. At worst, he's a hell of an improvement over throwing Josh "Automatic Loss" Towers out there every 5 days, that's for sure.

--Scott

[Pudge714]

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The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.

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He's a top-10 MVP candidate and a Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder, one of the most underrated players in baseball. I'm glad we kept him, and it's not like Rogers can't afford it anyway.

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In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate.

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Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly,

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Well, Lilly is well above average whenever he pitches against the Red Sox. He owns Boston. Against every other team in the league, he's average on a good day. No big loss. We have guys like Marcum, Janssen, and McGowan who are ready to replace him.

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Lilly is much better than Marcum, Janessen and McGowan and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous.

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Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape.

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Chacin is far better than a replacement-level pitcher. Your assessment of Lilly as an above-average pitcher would be far more accurate if applied to Chacin. The real problems in our rotation, which are now gone, were the fact that our #4 starter, Lilly, couldn't beat any team except Boston, and our #5 guy most of the year, Towers, couldn't beat anybody at all. Any 2 random kids from Syracuse will be a huge improvement over those 2 yahoos, and McGowan has a chance to be -really- good.

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Did you watch last year? Do you really think guys like Ty Taubenheim or Janssen were just as good as Lilly? Last year Lilly had a similar walk rate to Chacin and a much better strikeout rate.

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In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what Jays team you were watching last year, but the bullpen, other than Ryan and the now-departed Speier (he signed with the Angels during the off-season), was one of the major -weaknesses- of the Blue Jays team, and the main reason along with the gaping hole at the end of the rotation that we didn't give the Yankees more of a run. I don't know how many times last year I saw the Jays get out to an early lead and then watch Chulk, Schoeneweis, Frasor et al. piss it away with horrible long relief. Tallet and League are OK but nothing special, although League's 100-mph fastball is nasty on the few occasions he manages to get it in the general vicinity of home plate. Downs is mediocre, although he does have the added value of being able to be a spot starter as well. At worst, he's a hell of an improvement over throwing Josh "Automatic Loss" Towers out there every 5 days, that's for sure.

--Scott

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Our bullpen is solid except we are missing another lefty after BJ. You are really underestimating the value of an average pitcher. They don't just grow on trees. If a player like Downs got injured it would mean we would need to give serious playing time to guys like Towers.

[vin17]

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In a career year he wasn't a top ten MVP candidate.

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Most MVP candidates tend to be on teams that make the playoffs. Over the past few years the Jays have failed to field a truly playoff caliber team.
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Lilly is much better than Marcum, Janessen and McGowan and to suggest otherwise is ridiculous.

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Of course, as it stands now any baseball person with half a brain would take a team of Lilly's over a team of those guys. Lilly also happens to be an 8 year veteran who is accustomed to pitching every five days in the bigs. The three mentioned above, especially McGowan, have limited experience which leaves their futures undetermined. Although I think is the make or break year for McGowan. If he doesn't come through, then JP needs to cut his losses and move on.

You keep saying that 'average pitchers' are hard to come by and are thus very valuable...Is that why Gil Meche got 5 years/55 mil from KC? Because Lilly's career averages are actually worse than Meche's, and Meche got the bigger contract. Or is it because Meche (along with Burnett) are considered to have untapped potential to consistently put up great numbers; after all, they got the same contract.