2007 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[vin17]

**Note: Didn't see ryanghall's thread about the no Lilly/Meche thing but this one covers a more broad spectrum.**

JP sort of kicked things off in a backward manner by signing Thomas right off the bat (and for those of you who said that they overpaid, believe it or not there was a market for a player of his type; read: Mike Piazza. The signing of Zaun and Stairs were relatively minor, but what really stirred things was when Lilly eventually signed with the Cubbies. 4/40 for a .500 pitcher was completely asinine but that's this years market for you. Someone will end up giving the declining Zito 18 million over 5-6 years.

The big issue right now is the rotation. There is arguably a gaping hole in the 3rd spot, as Chacin is a perfect #4 providing he can stay consistent. He seems to get the most run support compared to the rest of the rotation and considering the ridiculous lineup we'll have this season, nothing should change too greatly. As for the 5th spot, I would love to see McGowan out of all the youngsters make it as if could ever get his command under control he could be a future ace. This is make-or-break time for him but what is crucial is that Gibbons let McGowan run with the last spot, win or lose. Although this looks contradicting to what the Jays are trying to do this year, maybe all he needed was the reassurance that he would be starting every five days over a long period.

As I type this, JP and Wells are apparently deep in talks hammering out a deal in the ballpark of 7/126 which is one year less but one mill per season more than Soriano but considering a comparison between the two and 'fair market value', is an appropriate figure. He along with Halladay are the cornerstones of the franchise.

So as it stands, if we can ink Wells and get at least one more good starter either through FA or more likely via trade, as well as some bullpen help then I am strongly confident that we'll contend for the pennant.

So where are you other Jays fan?

[Pudge714]

Bump

[vin17]

Ship it.

[grando]

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Ship it.

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SHIP IT indeed

1 more pitcher and BAM

[Pudge714]

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Ship it.

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I really hate this signing. He is 28 years old most likely peaked last year and he have him locked up for seven years.

[Scary_Tiger]

The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.

I expect this year for the Jays to fall back quite a bit.

Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape.

In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team.

In the lineup, Overbay, Glaus, Johnson, Rios are all superior guys to go along with the very good Wells and Thomas. The bottom three spots of your lineup will be a real weakness, as not much can be expected of your set of middle infielders.

I made the statement about expecting the Jays to fall back quite a bit without knowing much about the team. Looking at it, they're a lot stronger than I thought. They'd probably win every division not named the AL East or AL Central, in spite of their absolute dreck of a rotation.

[Pudge714]

Scary_Tiger,

Speier is gone, but Accardo has very good peripherals and looked really good last year.

McGowan, Marcum, Jansen, someone is going to need to become a starter, I'm still hoping the Jays will make a run at Mark Mulder or Victor Zambrano or someone else.

As for the middle infield
A platoon of Russ Adams and Royce Clayton at shortstop could be surprisingly unterrible, perhaps replacement level or slightly above.

If Aaron Hill plays 2b he will be a slightly above average second baseman when you factor is his defense.

[vin17]

Not to nitpick but...
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The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.

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I wouldn't go as far as to say it was an overpay. Yes it is a very large contract, but Wells is arguably a top 3 CF who's in the prime of his career and even though his slugging numbers have bounced around a bit, I fully expect them to continue to be as good as they were last year (and with the Thomas signing, to increase). He, along with Halladay are the leaders/cornerstones of the franchise and along with Halladay is a 'home grown' All-Star. Also, this was a statement to Wells, MLB and most importantly the fans that this team is committed to fielding a winner. Needless to say, hopefully he can stay out of injury trouble.
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...but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape.

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When you say 'above average', are you referring to his career record of 59-58. Sure he can be lights out when he's on, but as a longtime Jays follower I can tell you that there's been too many times where's he been knocked around which prevented him from finding a groove. In other words, the Cubs overpaid by about 1.5+ million/yr and to top it off him not being a ground ball pitcher in windy Wrigley should be fun. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team

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As mentioned, we lost Speier. I would put BJ Ryan behind only K-Rod and Mo Rivera, he is just that good. Frasor had a terrible first half but bounced back in the second half. League will hopefully become the permanent setup guy and may work as a spot starter during a rotation injury. As it stands, the Jays could do with a solid 8th inning guy so that when Halladay and *hopefully* Burnett have gone 7-8 innings the previous days before, the 3-5 guys will only be expected to put up 5-6 solid innings. So ya, the Jays bullpen isn't exactly a strength right now.
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The bottom three spots of your lineup will be a real weakness, as not much can be expected of your set of middle infielders.

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Unless you have Utley or Cano in your MIF, then you can't place too much offensive pressure on them. I think Adam Hill (already a .300 hitter) will continue to develop into a solid hitter. As for SS, the current tandem of McDonald/Clayton is very good defensively (the main concern) and I think the other 8 spots will make up for the lack of offensive punch from this spot. And I think Zaun will be just as good, if not better than last year, as he won't be platooning with Molina, unless there's a change.
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I expect this year for the Jays to fall back quite a bit.

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Not if JP and the increased payroll have anything to do with it...

I should probably say I typed this out without reading the last paragraph of your post but I thought it was worth posting anyways.

[Pudge714]

Zim,
Lilly is an above average starting pitcher and I don't really think he got overpaid. First off W-L is a horrible way too measure a pitcher, but also an "average" starting pitcher is a very useful commodity. Average starting pitchers are very hard to find.

Our major problem in the bullpen is a lack of good lefties after BJ and Downs. Accardo and League are both very good.

Using Chris Dial's Rankings
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/file...tion_al_aug_27/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/file...tion_nl_aug_27/

Both McDonald and Clayton are below average defensive SS's. McDonald doesn't deserve to be on a MLB roster and him being a defensive specialist is a myth.

We will need to find a decent backup catcher as Zaun is physically incapable of catching a lot of games.

[Propertarian]

Congrats on the Wells signing. A great contract compared to most of the long term deals signed this offseason.