need a plan vs a 2+2er

[Nick Royale]

Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[willw9]

FWIW I think i like c/c because of the reasons bilbo outlined. I rarely rarely just call the bet (unless I have AA/KK, which is possible, but it's definetely a small part of my range here); I'm either raising or folding. Therefore b/f sucks.

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[/ QUOTE ]

they're very close in EV. I don't like crai cuz it doesn't make much sense and will get looked up a lot.

I think b/f is better than c/c in because you don't have to play OOP for the hand.

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[/ QUOTE ]

they're very close in EV. I don't like crai cuz it doesn't make much sense and will get looked up a lot.

I think b/f is better than c/c in because you don't have to play OOP for the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You act like crai is a bluff. It's really not. We're not worried about getting looked up with crai, we're not trying to fold out AQ-AA, sets or two pair. It's done partly for balance, partly because it's the only real way to protect your hand and your equity in this pot which stands up quite well vs his range both for calling pf and betting when checked to. Another benefit is that you will most definitely get looked up by worse on some occasions on this board. When they fold, you got them to pump dead money into the pot and then fold which is a pretty gross error. When they call with better, you have the gutter and the bd/fd which people discount too much and is what gives you sooo much flexibility in lines on this flop vs a good, tight aggressive opponent.

I'd much rather b/c (and probably would about 65% of the time) and embrace variance here than b/f. As I said previously, doing anything at all that has you folding this hand on this flop vs a typical 2p2 tag is about the only mistake you can make.

I threw together what I think is a pretty tight range of hands that a typical tag is calling pf some percentage of the time and shoving this flop with just about always and I'd guess that they are going to b/c pretty darn close to the same range here when checked to them. Unless my range or super basic math estimations are way off, it's at a minimum a small mistake to b/f. Again, this is a tight range and as you expand it and even include some hands that he probably shoves sometimes and folds others (like smaller pairs, AK that isn't clubs, AJ/A9 type hands) I think bet/folding really starts to become a significant mistake.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8c Qh

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 42.477% 41.15% 01.33% 28108 908.00 { JcJs }

Hand 1: 57.523% 56.19% 01.33% 38386 908.00 { 88+, AcKc, AQs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8c Qh

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 42.477% 41.15% 01.33% 28108 908.00 { JcJs }

Hand 1: 57.523% 56.19% 01.33% 38386 908.00 { 88+, AcKc, AQs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

You must play in some amazingly loose games.

[Noam Chomsky]

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[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8c Qh

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 42.477% 41.15% 01.33% 28108 908.00 { JcJs }

Hand 1: 57.523% 56.19% 01.33% 38386 908.00 { 88+, AcKc, AQs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

You must play in some amazingly loose games.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol?

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 57.523% 56.19% 01.33% 38386 908.00 { 88+, AcKc, AQs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

You are bluffing when you're check/shoving flop. do you really expect a bunch of worse hands to call?

T9s, JTs, 89s make up a very small part of his calling range. AK is the only real hand I see calling us when behind.

Villain will check behind hands like AT, JT, that we beat. unless villain stabs at every pot, and there's no history in this case, I don't see crai being profitable.

[Noam Chomsky]

you can't be bluffing if no better hand ever folds which is most definitely the case here. just because a limited number of worse hands calls doesn't mean it's not for value.

[my1ifesavins]

you guys don't get in this spot often? whoever was talking about betting the flop because we have FE is definitely being misleading if not completely wrong. FE means we're folding out better hands which will never happen on the flop.we're never folding out better hands so Betting this flop is basically just keeping the betting initiative which leads to us not getting bluffed off the best hand as much by hands with no equity. yes technically we are not betting expecting to get called by worse hands but it is still a value bet. I call this denying "bluff equity" if you will.

I'm kinda confusing myself right now so hopefully you guys can help me sort out my thoughts. betting the flop decreases the likelihood that he will bluff w/ hands that have very little equity. should this lean us towards betting or checking? on one hand if we c/c we get more money in w/ better equity but we're most likely going to have to fold anyway on the turn/river since he's going to fire when we check to him. this lets him make more money with hands that have less equity. however if we b/f he will not bluff us off when we have very very good equity. we will only get bluffed when he has decent equity in the pot anyway. which is more important here?

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
you can't be bluffing if no better hand ever folds which is most definitely the case here. just because a limited number of worse hands calls doesn't mean it's not for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

and just because no better hand every folds doesn't make it NOT a bluff.

IE: you shoved on the river with air putting villain on small pocket pair.. He's a donk and called you. That'd be a bluff even though donk was never folding any part of his range that got there on the river, say, on a KKKAQ board.