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#51
11-27-2007, 02:08 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I am now talking about villain's betting range if we check, which I claim is mostly hands that beat us. [/ QUOTE ] Well, yeah, if you check don't call without a highly specific read. In general either bet/fold or check/fold. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. c-c seems like utter spew to me here. 
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#52
11-27-2007, 02:18 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
[/ QUOTE ]I am no longer talking about bet-folding KK as hero. I've already said that's ok if you think villain will call with a J, but that's pretty thin to me anyways. I am now talking about villain's betting range if we check, which I claim is mostly hands that beat us. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i dont think thats accurate. a decent percentage of villains river betting range is air/hands turned into bluffs i think u underestimate how many Jx hands are calling. since we fired all 3 streets our perceived range is actually smaller. Villain wont expect us to fire Jx on the river so our range is something like Ax/flush/air/hand we were value betting on the turn but now we are bluffing with. i.e. mid pockets. ultimately the reason b/f is the best line here is because the converse (c/c and c/f) are so horrible.
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#53
11-27-2007, 02:30 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
I dont see how villain can call this river with JQ without some serious history here.
I also think people are overestimating how often villain will have air here, and also overestimating how often he will turn a hand like JQ into a bluff aiming to only fold out QQ/KK.
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#56
11-27-2007, 08:55 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
[ QUOTE ]
yeah i dont think thats accurate. a decent percentage of villains river betting range is air/hands turned into bluffs [/ QUOTE ] Villain won't often show up with air here, and I don't think there's a reason to turn a made hand into a bluff vs our range.
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#57
11-27-2007, 09:08 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
[ QUOTE ]
No one wants to block the river to prevent weird K-J or Q-J holdings from bluffing us out? [/ QUOTE ] Thats the bet/fold. Anyways, if I think hes decent with no history and he aint overaggro or got out of line I dont expect him to have a hand on the river that is worse than ours. Any spade draw, AJ just got there and I think IF he has Jx here he checks it behind alot. So in this case I think c/f is the best line.
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#59
11-27-2007, 10:10 AM
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Re: KK against thinking opponent
easy c/f
if you are playing 100nl and a villain is capable of pushing this river card and turning his pair into a bluff - reading you for exactly QQ/KK (since AK is cc'ing this river and he knows it) then you are playing at the wrong 100nl table. read: 99% of villains aren't "good" enough to turn a pair into a bluff here.
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