|
|
#24
11-21-2007, 08:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Worst downswing ever?
I have a question. When you guys are on these horrible downswings, are they primarily from outrageous and constant outdraws?
|
|
#25
11-21-2007, 08:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] with the current state of 6-max plo games, i pretty much expect to have at least one 10+bi downswing every month. [/ QUOTE ] Pete, Can you (or anyone else) expand on this point? What is it about the current state of the game that would lead to at least one 10BI downswing/month? How is this different from the previous state of the game? Would you not expect the same variance in the prior state? Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] people play better and raise more preflop, so the winrate/sd of a good player is fairly low compared to the past.
|
|
#26
11-21-2007, 09:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. When you guys are on these horrible downswings, are they primarily from outrageous and constant outdraws? [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure that noone knows the exact answer but it would be good to hear what ppl think. With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable. If I took all my downswing periods I would guess that at least 50% of the time it was due to my own play/decisions. I would also like to think that this is an area that I've improved at through more short term game analysis with Pokertracker and PokerEV.
|
|
#27
11-21-2007, 09:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
I don't think of particular downswings that much, but the most i've lost in a session is 17bi, and the longest breakeven stretches I've had have been in the 40k hands range. I, for one, don't experience a 10bi downswing every month (maybe every 3 months?) but then I also don't put in the sheer volume that some players do.
This year, I don't think I've had worse then 14bi down.
|
|
#28
11-21-2007, 10:02 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
[ QUOTE ]
With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know enough about PokerEV to say definitively, but from my own usage of it, I don't know that it'll ever be able to tell the whole story. For example, there will be times where you have top set and correctly bet the flop and turn, only to payoff a bet on the river when an unlikely backdoor draw comes in. The software will list it as losing Sklanksy bucks, but it's not like the hand was played incorrectly. Ultimately, I think protracted downswings are caused by a bunch of factors that all sort of play off of each other: 1) loss of confidence and a bad mental state; 2) not hitting enough flops to justify putting any significant amount in; 3) the times you do hit, no one else does, so you only win a smallish pot; 4) losing more than your share of coinflip situations; and 5) continually running into the fat end of your opponents' ranges (i.e. coolers).
|
|
#29
11-21-2007, 10:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With Poker EV, you can tell how much of a downswing is due to short term allin luck and how much is due to things not so easily quantifiable. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know enough about PokerEV to say definitively, but from my own usage of it, I don't know that it'll ever be able to tell the whole story. For example, there will be times where you have top set and correctly bet the flop and turn, only to payoff a bet on the river when an unlikely backdoor draw comes in. The software will list it as losing Sklanksy bucks, but it's not like the hand was played incorrectly. Ultimately, I think protracted downswings are caused by a bunch of factors that all sort of play off of each other: 1) loss of confidence and a bad mental state; 2) not hitting enough flops to justify putting any significant amount in; 3) the times you do hit, no one else does, so you only win a smallish pot; 4) losing more than your share of coinflip situations; and 5) continually running into the fat end of your opponents' ranges (i.e. coolers). [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't tell the whole story, but I think it helps keep you from starting to running down the road of playing bad if you are getting all-in lucky. Also, if you run into the bad end of your opponent's range it is often hard to figure if you really are running into the bad range or perhaps your rangefinder is offkilter.
|
|
#30
11-21-2007, 10:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Worst downswing ever?
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't tell the whole story, but I think it helps keep you from starting to running down the road of playing bad if you are getting all-in lucky. [/ QUOTE ] Very true. I didn't mean to imply that it's useless; just that I don't think it's meant to be the final word, so to speak. The all-in luck tab with the net run (whatever the one line graph is) is - to me - very useful. [ QUOTE ] Also, if you run into the bad end of your opponent's range it is often hard to figure if you really are running into the bad range or perhaps your rangefinder is offkilter. [/ QUOTE ] Also very valid. To expound: it still comes down to building a hand range based on what you know about the other guy. If you know the other guy will try and move you off boards that don't seem to fit the action, or the person will play draws (and not just monster draws) very aggressively, there's nothing you can do when you run into the time they have top set. But, if you're against an unknown, I think the natural inclination is to give them a range you want them to have, rather than a more reasonable range. I think this just gets exacerbated when you're in a downswing. Hopefully that makes more sense than my initial post.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
