c-bet this flop?

[JJack]

I was just afraid that this flop is so coordinated that someone can raise it with any draw or hand like A7s, A9s and I dont wanna see turn for 2 SB.

[neurotiq]

I'm confused as to how UTG+2 folded preflop and then came back to call your raise? Whatever...

In any case, I'd c-bet this flop 100% of the time in a field of only three (or HU if UTG+2 didn't actually call). The flop misses your opponent(s) 67% of the time, so you could still have the best hand. Bet for value. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Dankenstein]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think it matters. But I probably c-bet close to 100% here which Im starting to think is a leak.

Im probably taking the freecard on the turn instead and then well see.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree with checking behind on the turn. People will put you on a C-bet and peel this flop with a lot of hands. When they miss the turn and check through to you again. it's time to continue your aggression and take down the pot. At least in my opinion.

[britspin]

I bet here a high proportion of the time. Not always, but a lot.

Assuming a call, I also c-bet again on the turn if that bricks (a real brick here is a 2-4 or a 9, because its A8 we're frit of.)

So on this board I'm often betting turn 21/46 of the time. (2/3/4/9/J/A). Should I also be considering betting a 6 a 7 or is this being wildly laggy?

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as to how UTG+2 folded preflop and then came back to call your raise? Whatever...

In any case, I'd c-bet this flop 100% of the time in a field of only three (or HU if UTG+2 didn't actually call). The flop misses your opponent(s) 67% of the time, so you could still have the best hand. Bet for value. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

why 67%?
Each opponent has about 33% to hit his OC's + sometimes he has pocet pair.

So you have about 33% chance that no one of 2 villains hit any OC's.

[Befolder]

I check this flop. It is very coordinated and my opponents are more likely to have connected than I did. We really don't care to get c/r'd and that will happen quite a bit, especially from tough players.

Take the free card and fold turn UI if donked to.

[neurotiq]

[ QUOTE ]

why 67%?
Each opponent has about 33% to hit

[/ QUOTE ]

Like you said, they'll hit 33% of the time. So, 1 - 0.33 = 0.67, or 67%. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So, it is a field of three? The preflop action kinda confused me since it showed UTG+2 folding and then calling.

The odds of both of them missing the flop, then, would be 0.67 * 0.67 = 0.45, or 45%. Since you're investing one small bet to potentially win six, you only need to be successful here 15% of the time for this to be a profitable play. Since 45% is far greater than 15%, betting seems right (remember that they can't fold if you don't bet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

why 67%?
Each opponent has about 33% to hit

[/ QUOTE ]

Like you said, they'll hit 33% of the time. So, 1 - 0.33 = 0.67, or 67%. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So, it is a field of three? The preflop action kinda confused me since it showed UTG+2 folding and then calling.

The odds of both of them missing the flop, then, would be 0.67 * 0.67 = 0.45, or 45%. Since you're investing one small bet to potentially win six, you only need to be successful here 15% of the time for this to be a profitable play. Since 45% is far greater than 15%, betting seems right (remember that they can't fold if you don't bet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that 33% statistic of hitting the flop only applies to whether someone paired up their hold cards if they were unpaired. It does not take into account whether they hit the flop w/ some kind of draw, which would then over take your hand as the favorite. Of course, you've been behind all along if someone had a PP to begin with.

The pot is not large, the flop missed us as badly as it can. Next hand please.

[bellatrix]

A few things to consider:


---
966,381,570 games 21.892 secs 44,143,137 games/sec

Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.761% 22.85% 00.91% 220849682 8774537.33 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 38.119% 36.68% 01.44% 354508891 13869784.33 { random }
Hand 2: 38.119% 36.68% 01.44% 354508891 13869784.33 { random }


---

UTG+2 has top 60% of hands, SB top 40%:

---
151,653,432 games 3.545 secs 42,779,529 games/sec

---


---

Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.673% 19.26% 01.41% 29213658 2137594.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 38.565% 37.28% 01.28% 56541818 1943752.50 { 22+, A2s+,
K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 2: 40.762% 39.12% 01.64% 59324759 2491850.00 { 55+, A2s+,
K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


---

And we're quickly reaching the 15% that makes a sense equity wise for a bluff. UTG+2 has top 30% of hands, SB cold-caller has top 15% of hands:

---
39,169,431 games 0.922 secs 42,483,113 games/sec

Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.879% 18.71% 02.17% 7326967 851126.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 41.470% 39.86% 01.61% 15613207 630252.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 37.651% 35.55% 02.10% 13923784 824094.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


---

Please consider that you might get check-raised on the flop, too. A bet on the turn looks much more scary than a boring c-bet.
I'm not saying NEVER c-bet here, but I would rather not...

"Still got to c-bet c-bet everything in limit hold'em."

[Douglas Leslie]

Against two opponents I bet here. I hope to get a free card on the turn if my hand doesn't improve.