Trying to sandwich the caller postflop

[hero]

thanks to everyone for all the hard work, i just read over this bc of the digest, trying to comprehend- learned quite a bit- thx again A/

[OrianasDaad]

Grunch

PF - Standard
Flop - Wha?, a check-raise here doesn't protect your hand from gutshots. Check-call, planning to check-raise a turn blank.
Turn - Ugh. Bad card. The pot is big, though, and there's no real reason to suspect that MP1 has a T or 5, given the action. He might have TT. UTG could have picked up a draw now, if he didn't have one. Check-raise here. Even if you are way behind now, getting UTG to fold probably increases your winning chances by enough to offset the extra bet in the pot you have to put in.

River - Blank. I check and call here, because I don't think MP1 can call with any hands that I can beat, but he might bet some hands that I can.

[MrWookie]

Actually, a flop c/r offers about 8.5:1, which is protection against a gutshot. Since a gutshot would be calling two, their implied odds suck, too. BTW, I hope you read the rest of this thread. It's too good to just grunch.

[Burning_K]

Okay... I've been trying to follow and understand everything in this thread and I think I've got 'yay' far. I didn't really want to make new posts in an old thread but I'm having some problems with some aspects of the 'challenge', plus I'm sure I'm messing up some of the maths.
I want to post what I've come up with so far and I hope that someone can point out any obvious flaws or errors and explain some of the parts I'm stuck with. It would be great because this analysis side of the game is all new and I really want to understand what I'm doing here.

Anyway. I seem to have come up with a lot of information (which may be incorrect) but I'm not sure how to apply some of it.

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Starting with UTG's hand range:

To limp in UTG+1pos and cold call the preflop and turn bets I'm looking at mostly suited drawings hands and made hands of the type that could possibly be expected to limp in from this position.
I don't know if this was necessary but I also worked out the numbers of spade suited combos (I guess one combo from each suited hand except for hands that include spades on the board) I've used so I could use them for new hand ranges later where UTG might call two cold on the turn.
The only '5's' I've included are A5s combos and 55. I didn't think any lesser hands would limp in from that pos.

My initial range for UTG (with combos) is:
ATs (4) ATo (12) A9s (3) A8s (3) A7s (3) A6s (3) A5s (4) ---
KQs (2) KJs (2) KJo (6) KTs (2) KTo (6) K9s (1) K8s (2) ---
QJs (4) QJo (12) QTs (4) Q9s (3) Q8s (3) JTs (4) J9s (3) J8s (3) ---
T9s (3) 99 (3) 88 (3) 77 (3) 66 (3) 55 (6)

109 combos.
57 beat us.
UTG's equity is 52.3% before action on the Turn (vs my hand only)?
Odds are 0.9:1 for UTG

MP's hand range I have as:
JJ QQ KK AA.

19 combos:
6 beat me.
12 I'm ahead of.
1 to draw.

I'm 60% likely to beat him heads up.

I put all this into Poker Stove also to get Equity on the Turn before any action occurs:

Hero 23.1% 3.3:1 3 BB share of pot (pot is 13.25BB's).
UTG 58% 0.7:1 7.5 BB
MP 18.9% 4.3:1 2.5 BB

How do I work out what each BB that goes into the pot is worth if any player bets?

If UTG folds to a check/raise then my equity increases by about 37% or 6 BB's (there'll be 16.25 BB's in pot after the c/r).

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I then did a bunch of new hand ranges for UTG and resulting equity changes based on potential actions (I've just put the pokerstove equity results to try and keep this post shorter):

UTG hands that will call one bet (hands with 4+ outs).
52 combos - 47% probability (1.1:1).
Pokerstove results:
Hero 38.1% 1.6:1
UTG 33.6% 2:1
MP 28.3% 2.5:1

UTG hands that will bet/raise/check raise (hands that are straights or sets).
56 combos - 51.3% probability (0.94:1)
Pokerstove results:
Hero 3.8% 25.3:1
UTG 89.8% 0.1:1
MP 6.4% 14.6:1

UTG hands that will call two bets (hands with 6+ outs).
37 combos - 34% probability (1.9:1)
Pokerstove results:
Hero 44.1% 1.3:1
UTG 20.2%
MP 35.6%

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Next I tried to work out the EV for Hero using the various equity results above. Not having done any EV calcuations before I used the current size of the pot, the bets that go into it from the other players to the river (estimating the river bets as someone bets and the others call, so +3 bets) and the bets that Hero puts in. Is this correct? At first I used all the bets Hero had put in on all streets but I think I read in the thread that you don't do this? I'm sure I've messed up here... I tried to do this based on the following actions Hero makes:

Betting out:

Hero bets/UTG calls/MP calls.
Pot = 13.25 +3 (turn bets) +3 (river bets) = 19.25 BB's. Hero puts in 2 BB's.
(1/2.6) (19.25) + (1.6/2.6) (-2) = + 6.2 EV?

Hero bets/UTG raises/MP calls/Hero calls.
Pot = 13.25 +6 +3 = 22.25. Hero puts in 3 BB's.
(1/26.3) (22.25)+(25.3/26.3) (-3 BB's) = - 2.1 EV.

Check raising:

Hero checks/UTG checks/MP bets/Hero raises/UTG calls/MP calls.
Pot = 22.25. Hero puts in 3.
(1/2.3) (22.25) + (1.3/2.3) (-3) = + 8.1 EV

Hero checks/UTG checks/MP bets/Hero raises/UTG folds/MP calls.
Pot = 13.25 +4 (turn) +2 (river) = 19.25. Hero puts in 3.
(1/1.7) (19.25) + (0.7/1.7) (-3) = + 10.1 EV

Check/calling:

Hero checks/UTG checks/MP checks. (Using the 'before action' equity results).
Pot = 13.25 +3 = 16.25. Hero puts in 1 (on the river).
(1/4.3) (16.25) + (3.3/4.3) (-1) = +3 EV


So if we fold after UTG raises we lose 1BB.
If UTG folds we win against MP a certain percentage of the time. Should I average these win/lose numbers and do another EV calc?
Argh!

I noticed some other posters using what looked like some other probabilities in their EV calculations... I'm finding it hard to follow some of the posts.

I'm a bit stuck now. I really need some help!

So I have a couple of questions which are:

What have I done wrong and how do I fix it?
How can I use this information in more meaningful ways?

Thanks for your time.