The medium strength hand in position

[David Nicoson]

OK, so here's an example.

1/2 with stacks of 300 all around. 9-handed.

Hero is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button.

Preflop
3 folds. MP limps. CO calls. <font color="blue">Hero raises to 10.</font> Blinds fold. MP folds. CO calls.

Flop ($25)
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO checks. <font color="blue">Hero bets $25.</font> CO calls.

Turn ($75)
2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
CO checks. <font color="blue">Hero bets $50.</font> CO calls.

River ($175)
7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

CO checks. Hero ??

Conventional wisdom is that the hero should check behind here. Why can't we bet for value here? Conventional wisdom says we don't want to reopen the betting if we're behind and a draw can't pay us if it missed.

If we have pocket jacks, it doesn't make sense to value bet the river (unless our reputation makes our firing three bullets with ace-high or a smaller pair likely).

But some worse hands can pay us off here, especially a weaker king.

If we think the villain's range makes us a dog by the river, then we need to check. Why is re-opening the betting bad if we think we're ahead? We might fear a river bluff forcing us to lay down the best hand. We might also fear paying off a better hand.

But we can try to call the bluff and fold to the better hand. That's just more poker.
Re-opening the betting is bad only if we think we're at a disadvantage in information compared to our opponent.

If we size our river bet in proportion to our hand strength, then we are at a disadvantage in information. In NLHE: T&amp;P, Sklanksy &amp; Miller compute our EV for different bet sizes and concludes that we should often overbet with the nuts. He's focuses on the single hand.

If we bet half pot or less with top pair and pot with top set, our opponent can put us on a hand and use that information against us.

In LHE, it's often correct to bet the river with top pair. It's partly because the penalty for paying off that last bet isn't so large. It's also true that we can't leak information with our bet size.

So I think we can bet this river with just top pair if we're willing to take a deceptive strategy for our bet size, by either underbetting the nuts or always betting the same amount.

Cross posted on FCP.

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
Conventional wisdom is that the hero should check behind here.

[/ QUOTE ]



Paul

[David Nicoson]

OK, say it's conventional stupidity. It doesn't really matter.

[74o_Clownsuit]

lol valuetown.