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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:26 AM
OziBattler OziBattler is offline
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Default Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:31 AM
Smurph64 Smurph64 is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

bet fold turn
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  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:36 AM
Predator314 Predator314 is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.
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  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:39 AM
OziBattler OziBattler is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[ QUOTE ]
In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. Ozi is tired and needs to sleep. fixed via edit of OP.
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:43 AM
TimovieMan TimovieMan is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

I’ll let someone else do the math. I’m actually quite interested in the result, but since I’m at work I’ve no access to Stove and can’t be arsed to calculate something myself… But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:50 AM
fretelöo fretelöo is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[ QUOTE ]
I’ll let someone else do the math. I’m actually quite interested in the result, but since I’m at work I’ve no access to Stove and can’t be arsed to calculate something myself… But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, really brilliant. Because since we know that villain - if he has a spade at all - will have Q+, that Clarkmeister is clearly a genious plan. He'll fold his Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and v-bet our ass off with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
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  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:13 AM
shuinthehouse shuinthehouse is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

If you bet I don't think he can raise without the A or K of spades, so you can safely fold. He has to be worried about you having A or K of spades since you 3 bet PF and donked into his PF cap on a 3 spade board.

PF isn't AQs in his range also? Seems as or more likely to cap with that 5 way than with JJ.

edit: sorry, missed point 4 adding AQs to his range, still seems as or more likely than JJ to me.
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  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:27 AM
TimovieMan TimovieMan is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

If we check, and he bets, is he bluffing or is he value betting? We don’t know, so we must call down. –EV
If we check, and he checks behind, is he slowplaying, or does he not have a spade? Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.
If we bet, and he raises, we can clearly fold our hands. What’s he gonna raise on this board? Only the A. We can fold. -1 BB (if he musters up the nerve to bluff-raise us, kudos to him)
If we bet and he calls, does he have a spade that’s not the nuts, or is he unsure about us having a spade? Again we don’t know. Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.

Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

Hence the requested math, obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:50 AM
fretelöo fretelöo is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[ QUOTE ]
@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But that doesn't make it right to choose the one line that gives us clearly the worst of all worlds for the price of 1BB and the relieve that we avoided a sticky situation. This hand is so insanely read-dependend that it's almose completely useless to post it without ~50 hands to go before so we can establish some sort of feel. In a vacuum (and stats/some remarks about hand ranges is a vacuum), you can simply choose between making a clearly -ev play or a probably -ev play. Clarkmeistering is clearly -ev because there's simply no chance in the world that a thinking player isn't playing correctly against us on this board.

Checking and seeing what he does at least gives us hopes for doing something +ev.

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. But why should we make it worse?
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  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:42 AM
maverickai maverickai is offline
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Default Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

Question 1
Total hands he can hold:
AA
1 possible hand
1 spades hand

KK
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

QQ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

JJ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

Therefore odds is (1+3+3+3+4)/(1+6+6+6+8)
= 51.8% he has a spade.
I will round up to 52%

Question 2
Let's assume villian bets out on turn and river, and HERO calls.

Total EV of calling down = ((0.48*15)+(0.52*-2))
= 6.16BB

EV of turn and river call down bets = ((0.48*2)+(0.52*-2))
= -0.08BB

Pot's too big to ignore. Calling is still +EV, so reasonable to call down.

Question 3

Assuming villian will call when he holds no flush, and he will raise if he has a flush.
EV of HERO's turn bet/fold = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

EV of HERO's turn check/call = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

Same EV for both decision. I'd go for check/call, you get to see the river, and you don't forfeit the huge pot.

Question 4

So that adds hands like:
TT
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AQs
2 possible hands
1 spades hands

The odds he's holding onto spades becomes = (1+3+3+3+4+3+1)/(1+6+6+6+8+6+2)
= 51.4%

Well... not much difference if he's range is widened.

So teacher, is my math correct??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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