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  #61  
Old 10-28-2007, 12:39 AM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response?

[/ QUOTE ]

this reply "makes sense" which > baltostar responses
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  #62  
Old 10-28-2007, 01:00 AM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shoving is just -cEV for relatively wide UTG raising range of 55+,AK,AQ,AJs ...


shove called & win = 4390
shove called & lose = 4090
shove fold win = 800

UTG calling range:
AK 8
JJ+ 4 * 6 = 24

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 22911950 138060.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 45304090 138060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

UTG raise range:
55+ 10 * 6 = 60
AK AQ 2 * 8 = 16
AJs 4

BB shove equity:

(32/80) * (.33654 * 4390 - .66346 * 4090) + (48/80) * 800 =
(32/80) * (-1246) + (48/80) * 800 =
.4 * (-1246) + .6 * 800 =
-498 + 480 = -18

[/ QUOTE ]


The raising range you gave was much looser than that!

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean the UTG raising range that I gave for myself in an earlier post? Any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+ ? That was to show that hero shoving AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards was equity neutral for a very wide villain UTG raising range.

That was before the big debate as to whether Bakes would open muck 88, implying a consensus for a much narrower range than my range. Bakes said he wouldn't open muck 88 and you said you put him as low as 55+, so I fiddled until I found a range right at the equity neutral crossover point for calling a pre-flop shove.

Is 55+ AQ+ AJs wide/narrow for Bakes ? I don't know and I can't ask him b/c he has me on ignore.

If anything, this thread has shown that it's better to crunch some preliminary calcs before getting into a big debate.

55+ AQ+ AJs with a calling range of JJ+ AK seems to me to be a reasonable equity-neutral starting place for figuring a realistic range for a Bakes-esque villain.
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  #63  
Old 10-28-2007, 01:08 AM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's less intelligible to me, but keep in mind that I'm the one who writes my responses.

Still highly intelligible though.
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  #64  
Old 10-28-2007, 01:14 AM
Bakes Bakes is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

Actually i took you off ignore now that you are starting to speak English.
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  #65  
Old 10-28-2007, 01:14 AM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shoving is just -cEV for relatively wide UTG raising range of 55+,AK,AQ,AJs ...


shove called & win = 4390
shove called & lose = 4090
shove fold win = 800

UTG calling range:
AK 8
JJ+ 4 * 6 = 24

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 22911950 138060.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 45304090 138060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

UTG raise range:
55+ 10 * 6 = 60
AK AQ 2 * 8 = 16
AJs 4

BB shove equity:

(32/80) * (.33654 * 4390 - .66346 * 4090) + (48/80) * 800 =
(32/80) * (-1246) + (48/80) * 800 =
.4 * (-1246) + .6 * 800 =
-498 + 480 = -18

[/ QUOTE ]


The raising range you gave was much looser than that!

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean the UTG raising range that I gave for myself in an earlier post? Any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+ ? That was to show that hero shoving AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards was equity neutral for a very wide villain UTG raising range.

That was before the big debate as to whether Bakes would open muck 88, implying a consensus for a much narrower range than my range. Bakes said he wouldn't open muck 88 and you said you put him as low as 55+, so I fiddled until I found a range right at the equity neutral crossover point for calling a pre-flop shove.

Is 55+ AQ+ AJs wide/narrow for Bakes ? I don't know and I can't ask him b/c he has me on ignore.

If anything, this thread has shown that it's better to crunch some preliminary calcs before getting into a big debate.

55+ AQ+ AJs with a calling range of JJ+ AK seems to me to be a reasonable equity-neutral starting place for figuring a realistic range for a Bakes-esque villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had Bakes opening a bit looser than that for my calcs, but I was trying to err on the side of looseness so that it would resoundingly prove that pushing TT was probably not the best plan. But maybe I only added KQs and QJs to the range.
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  #66  
Old 10-28-2007, 01:32 AM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response?

[/ QUOTE ]

this reply "makes sense" which > baltostar responses

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, it felt very long and rambling but maybe I got lucky.
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  #67  
Old 10-28-2007, 12:18 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

p = Pr(Bakes folds to shove) = % of range he's raise/folding with

q = equity against Bakes' calling range

cEV = 4890p + 8680q - 8680pq - 4090

cEV(fold) = 0, not -200

So for given calling ranges of Bakes, I calculated how wide Bakes has to be opening (at least) for shoving TT to be +cEV:

Calling Range-------Q-------------Opening Range

{JJ+,AK}------------0.3365--------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AK}------------0.34052-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AK}------------0.40173-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AK}------------0.44866-------{77+,AKo,AJs+}
{JJ+,AQ+}-----------0.40109-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AQ+}-----------0.40282-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AQ+}-----------0.44255-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AQ+}-----------0.47505-------** always +cEV **

My best guess would be opening {88+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK}, which would make cEV(shove TT) = -370.
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  #68  
Old 10-28-2007, 02:55 PM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Posts: 541
Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
p = Pr(Bakes folds to shove) = % of range he's raise/folding with

q = equity against Bakes' calling range

cEV = 4890p + 8680q - 8680pq - 4090

cEV(fold) = 0, not -200

So for given calling ranges of Bakes, I calculated how wide Bakes has to be opening (at least) for shoving TT to be +cEV:

Calling Range-------Q-------------Opening Range

{JJ+,AK}------------0.3365--------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AK}------------0.34052-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AK}------------0.40173-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AK}------------0.44866-------{77+,AKo,AJs+}
{JJ+,AQ+}-----------0.40109-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AQ+}-----------0.40282-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AQ+}-----------0.44255-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AQ+}-----------0.47505-------** always +cEV **

My best guess would be opening {88+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK}, which would make cEV(shove TT) = -370.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting stuff.

I actually think that at M=14, a lot of players open a fair amount wider than {77+,AJo+,ATs+}, but aren't calling much more than {TT+,AK}, so shoving could be somewhat +cEV if you can identify those opponents.

And against an apestyled player who opens reasonably wide and calls their entire range, shoving is the move.
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  #69  
Old 10-28-2007, 05:00 PM
apestyles apestyles is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
p


And against an apestyled player who opens reasonably wide and calls their entire range, shoving is the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reading comprehension sucks. What I am saying is open muck 88 or raise/call, otherwise your hand has no value whatsoever or actually plays worse in situations where u are flat called than hands like JTs. I open extremely tight utg with a short stack, I am probably mucking 77. Perhaps this adjustment I make in the 100r with a shortish stack is incorrect, but it works pretty well for me.

edit: With this size stack I am opening tight and reshoving light fwiw.
edit2: I am willing to admit that this strategy may not be optimal without an ante. Perhaps I should be opening a wider range with 14 M and raise folding more.
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  #70  
Old 10-28-2007, 05:13 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[ QUOTE ]
Your reading comprehension sucks. What I am saying is open muck 88 or raise/call, otherwise your hand has no value whatsoever

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have to raise/fold to every player at the table [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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