#61
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response? [/ QUOTE ] this reply "makes sense" which > baltostar responses |
#62
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Shoving is just -cEV for relatively wide UTG raising range of 55+,AK,AQ,AJs ... shove called & win = 4390 shove called & lose = 4090 shove fold win = 800 UTG calling range: AK 8 JJ+ 4 * 6 = 24 equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 22911950 138060.00 { TcTd } Hand 1: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 45304090 138060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } UTG raise range: 55+ 10 * 6 = 60 AK AQ 2 * 8 = 16 AJs 4 BB shove equity: (32/80) * (.33654 * 4390 - .66346 * 4090) + (48/80) * 800 = (32/80) * (-1246) + (48/80) * 800 = .4 * (-1246) + .6 * 800 = -498 + 480 = -18 [/ QUOTE ] The raising range you gave was much looser than that! [/ QUOTE ] Do you mean the UTG raising range that I gave for myself in an earlier post? Any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+ ? That was to show that hero shoving AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards was equity neutral for a very wide villain UTG raising range. That was before the big debate as to whether Bakes would open muck 88, implying a consensus for a much narrower range than my range. Bakes said he wouldn't open muck 88 and you said you put him as low as 55+, so I fiddled until I found a range right at the equity neutral crossover point for calling a pre-flop shove. Is 55+ AQ+ AJs wide/narrow for Bakes ? I don't know and I can't ask him b/c he has me on ignore. If anything, this thread has shown that it's better to crunch some preliminary calcs before getting into a big debate. 55+ AQ+ AJs with a calling range of JJ+ AK seems to me to be a reasonable equity-neutral starting place for figuring a realistic range for a Bakes-esque villain. |
#63
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response? [/ QUOTE ] It's less intelligible to me, but keep in mind that I'm the one who writes my responses. Still highly intelligible though. |
#64
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
Actually i took you off ignore now that you are starting to speak English.
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#65
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Shoving is just -cEV for relatively wide UTG raising range of 55+,AK,AQ,AJs ... shove called & win = 4390 shove called & lose = 4090 shove fold win = 800 UTG calling range: AK 8 JJ+ 4 * 6 = 24 equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 22911950 138060.00 { TcTd } Hand 1: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 45304090 138060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } UTG raise range: 55+ 10 * 6 = 60 AK AQ 2 * 8 = 16 AJs 4 BB shove equity: (32/80) * (.33654 * 4390 - .66346 * 4090) + (48/80) * 800 = (32/80) * (-1246) + (48/80) * 800 = .4 * (-1246) + .6 * 800 = -498 + 480 = -18 [/ QUOTE ] The raising range you gave was much looser than that! [/ QUOTE ] Do you mean the UTG raising range that I gave for myself in an earlier post? Any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+ ? That was to show that hero shoving AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards was equity neutral for a very wide villain UTG raising range. That was before the big debate as to whether Bakes would open muck 88, implying a consensus for a much narrower range than my range. Bakes said he wouldn't open muck 88 and you said you put him as low as 55+, so I fiddled until I found a range right at the equity neutral crossover point for calling a pre-flop shove. Is 55+ AQ+ AJs wide/narrow for Bakes ? I don't know and I can't ask him b/c he has me on ignore. If anything, this thread has shown that it's better to crunch some preliminary calcs before getting into a big debate. 55+ AQ+ AJs with a calling range of JJ+ AK seems to me to be a reasonable equity-neutral starting place for figuring a realistic range for a Bakes-esque villain. [/ QUOTE ] I had Bakes opening a bit looser than that for my calcs, but I was trying to err on the side of looseness so that it would resoundingly prove that pushing TT was probably not the best plan. But maybe I only added KQs and QJs to the range. |
#66
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Out of curiosity: is this response more or less intelligible than the average baltostar response? [/ QUOTE ] this reply "makes sense" which > baltostar responses [/ QUOTE ] Okay, it felt very long and rambling but maybe I got lucky. |
#67
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
p = Pr(Bakes folds to shove) = % of range he's raise/folding with
q = equity against Bakes' calling range cEV = 4890p + 8680q - 8680pq - 4090 cEV(fold) = 0, not -200 So for given calling ranges of Bakes, I calculated how wide Bakes has to be opening (at least) for shoving TT to be +cEV: Calling Range-------Q-------------Opening Range {JJ+,AK}------------0.3365--------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {TT+,AK}------------0.34052-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {99+,AK}------------0.40173-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+} {88+,AK}------------0.44866-------{77+,AKo,AJs+} {JJ+,AQ+}-----------0.40109-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {TT+,AQ+}-----------0.40282-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {99+,AQ+}-----------0.44255-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+} {88+,AQ+}-----------0.47505-------** always +cEV ** My best guess would be opening {88+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK}, which would make cEV(shove TT) = -370. |
#68
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
p = Pr(Bakes folds to shove) = % of range he's raise/folding with q = equity against Bakes' calling range cEV = 4890p + 8680q - 8680pq - 4090 cEV(fold) = 0, not -200 So for given calling ranges of Bakes, I calculated how wide Bakes has to be opening (at least) for shoving TT to be +cEV: Calling Range-------Q-------------Opening Range {JJ+,AK}------------0.3365--------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {TT+,AK}------------0.34052-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {99+,AK}------------0.40173-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+} {88+,AK}------------0.44866-------{77+,AKo,AJs+} {JJ+,AQ+}-----------0.40109-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {TT+,AQ+}-----------0.40282-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+} {99+,AQ+}-----------0.44255-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+} {88+,AQ+}-----------0.47505-------** always +cEV ** My best guess would be opening {88+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK}, which would make cEV(shove TT) = -370. [/ QUOTE ] Very interesting stuff. I actually think that at M=14, a lot of players open a fair amount wider than {77+,AJo+,ATs+}, but aren't calling much more than {TT+,AK}, so shoving could be somewhat +cEV if you can identify those opponents. And against an apestyled player who opens reasonably wide and calls their entire range, shoving is the move. |
#69
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] p And against an apestyled player who opens reasonably wide and calls their entire range, shoving is the move. [/ QUOTE ] Your reading comprehension sucks. What I am saying is open muck 88 or raise/call, otherwise your hand has no value whatsoever or actually plays worse in situations where u are flat called than hands like JTs. I open extremely tight utg with a short stack, I am probably mucking 77. Perhaps this adjustment I make in the 100r with a shortish stack is incorrect, but it works pretty well for me. edit: With this size stack I am opening tight and reshoving light fwiw. edit2: I am willing to admit that this strategy may not be optimal without an ante. Perhaps I should be opening a wider range with 14 M and raise folding more. |
#70
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Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
[ QUOTE ]
Your reading comprehension sucks. What I am saying is open muck 88 or raise/call, otherwise your hand has no value whatsoever [/ QUOTE ] you don't have to raise/fold to every player at the table [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
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