TT vs. WhoooooohKid

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
you definately dont have 6 outs if you shove w/ a gutshot to broadway and get called

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, if he already has broadway you have 3 outs to chop, so that counts as 1.5. If he has a broadway draw to a T you have 3. Same broadway draw as you is unlikely but you chop, so 4 counts as 2. If he has a set you only have 4 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 2.5. If he has 2P you have 6 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 4. If he has PP of the card you need you have 4. If he has top pair, you have maybe 5.5 Put it all in the blender, I don't know, maybe 3.5 outs on avg ? I guess you probably shouldn't shove AKQ AKJ KQJ

[DJ Pattiecake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you definately dont have 6 outs if you shove w/ a gutshot to broadway and get called

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, if he already has broadway you have 3 outs to chop, so that counts as 1.5. If he has a broadway draw to a T you have 3. Same broadway draw as you is unlikely but you chop, so 4 counts as 2. If he has a set you only have 4 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 2.5. If he has 2P you have 6 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 4. If he has PP of the card you need you have 4. If he has top pair, you have maybe 5.5 Put it all in the blender, I don't know, maybe 3.5 outs on avg ? I guess you probably shouldn't shove 3.5x the pot vs. utg raiser on AKQ AKJ KQJ

[/ QUOTE ]

o rly?

[apestyles]

Shove. Basically a coin toss vs. the hands he raise calls with. Slight chance he raise folds.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

708,893,856 games 0.005 secs 141,778,771,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.495% 51.60% 00.90% 365768136 6366534.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 47.505% 46.61% 00.90% 330392652 6366534.00 { TT }


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[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you definately dont have 6 outs if you shove w/ a gutshot to broadway and get called

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, if he already has broadway you have 3 outs to chop, so that counts as 1.5. If he has a broadway draw to a T you have 3. Same broadway draw as you is unlikely but you chop, so 4 counts as 2. If he has a set you only have 4 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 2.5. If he has 2P you have 6 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 4. If he has PP of the card you need you have 4. If he has top pair, you have maybe 5.5 Put it all in the blender, I don't know, maybe 3.5 outs on avg ? I guess you probably shouldn't shove 3.5x the pot vs. utg raiser on AKQ AKJ KQJ

[/ QUOTE ]

o rly?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was villain here's what I'd raise UTG with M=15 : any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+. I'm calling the AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards with AA KK QQ JJ TT AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs.

Let's assume villain doesn't have a T.

XX hands have 6 combos, XY have 8, XYs have 4. Villain calling frequency would be = (4*6 + 4*8 + 5*4)/(13*6 + 4*8 + 8*4) = (76/142) = 53%

If called, hero loses (1 - 3.5/45) = 92% of the time.

Expected payoff for hero = (47% * 4390) + (53% * ( 7% * 4390 - 92% * 4190)) = 2063 + 163 - 2043 = 200

This is pretty close and we have to tweak down for chance villain has a T, so it looks like a total coin flip (based on my raising range).

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]

If I was villain here's what I'd raise UTG with M=15 : any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+. I'm calling the AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards with AA KK QQ JJ TT AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some guys in the beginners forum were discussing some super advanced concepts the other day. I don't think any of the "standard" players here will have heard of it. One of them was called "position". You should go check it out.

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If I was villain here's what I'd raise UTG with M=15 : any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+. I'm calling the AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards with AA KK QQ JJ TT AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some guys in the beginners forum were discussing some super advanced concepts the other day. I don't think any of the "standard" players here will have heard of it. One of them was called "position". You should go check it out.



[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you're saying. You think my raising range for villain is too wide because I'll likely be playing the hand OOP ? What's your M=14 UTG raising range ?

[getballed]

I would just call here, we are too deep to be shoving this this or RR to fold to a shove.

Call here and look to CR low flops

[uclabruinz]

A couple points:

1. We are not too deep to be shoving. Effective stacks are 21 BBs.

2. Agree that folding is out of the question.

3. Agree with apestyles that shoving is probably slightly +cEV.

But, that still leaves the question whether calling is more +EV. Just because one option is good doesn't mean others aren't better. I don't know the answer, by the way, but Bakes is good and has position and has a real hand, so I can't imagine playing OOP with TT is very good here.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Effective stacks are 21 BBs...Bakes is good and has position and has a real hand

[/ QUOTE ]

the thing about this is that we're not really debating "playing OOP" so much as we are debating "shove vs. call, check/fold bad flops, check/shove good ones" (I assume nobody wants to check/call non-set flops here as that'd be kinda crazy for like 1/3 of our stack.) Seen in that light, I think check/shoving is a clear favorite since JJ+ isn't ever folding anyway but 88 doesn't get away on 742 boards.

[uclabruinz]

You're nitpicking. Friggin' lawyer.

EDIT: BTW, before you nitpick again, I know you're not nitpicking. The distinction you make is important. Position is almost irrelevant because our action is pretty much predistined by whatever the flop is. I guess the only relevance with position is that Bakes is also thinking about ranges and flop texture.