Stars 5NL flopped top 2-pair, calling station overbets turn?

udbrky · #1 11-26-2007, 10:56 PM

Villain is 30/5/1.4 over 270 hands over several sessions.

He pauses on the flop, red flags go up shouting set. Based on that feeling, is my raise spewing? He re-raises me the minimum instantly. I'm getting good odds, and call, even though I put him on a set of 2's.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($5.27)
MP ($5.33)
Hero ($5.32)
Button ($1)
SB ($2.36)
BB ($5.06)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.07) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $0.06, Hero raises to $0.25, BB raises to $0.44, MP folds, Hero calls $0.19.

Turn: ($1.01) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $4.6 (All-In) instantly, Hero ????

MAA · #2 11-26-2007, 11:00 PM

I would probably call this one since there is so much idiot at NL5 bluffing you or playing tp like that, but however if I knew vilain was somewhat a little good I'd fold.

ICMoney · #3 11-26-2007, 11:05 PM

I don't limp behind pf - make it .1 to go.

He doesn't have JT b/c he's have to think how much to bet.

There was a bet, you raise and then he cold min check-raises over both of you.

He's as strong as an ox.

I don't think more than two secs - fold.

vixticator · #4 11-26-2007, 11:06 PM

No raise isn't even close to spew, I'm not even sure 4betting is spew though you'd need to fold to shove I think. Don't know what to make of turn bet. I don't think he has a straight. So maybe AhQh, 6h7h... and I wouldn't rule out QQ, KK, AA either. Doesn't seem like a good spot to 3bet bluff flop and shove turn either. I think fold is ok but calling can't be too bad IMO, pretty marginal spot probably slightly -EV.

ICMoney · #5 11-26-2007, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably call this one since there is so much idiot at NL5 bluffing you or playing tp like that, but however if I knew vilain was somewhat a little good I'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize it was BB that min raised both MP and you?

This would def be idiotic if it were a bluff.

It's not and I think a call 250bb deep with that action is [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

udbrky · #6 11-26-2007, 11:08 PM

I put him on 22 and said "22 over 98 it seems" and he typed that he had 98 as well, but his pause and min-raise screams set.

Clover78 · #7 11-26-2007, 11:11 PM

What hand are we scared of him having? We have to lower the weight on pocket 8s or 9s obviously so flush draw, 22, A9hh or air (light weight) are all in his range. I don't think J10 would overbet like this, I think its a marginal call without reads but if his AF is 1.4, even over a small sample, I think we can get away from this.

udbrky · #8 11-26-2007, 11:21 PM

I didn't even think 88 or 99. He's not aggressive enough to bet a draw - at the point this hand played out, he was only 1 on TA. I put him pretty squarely on 22. I called on the flop because of the odds and I knew I'd have implied odds if I made a bigger boat.

Clover78 · #9 11-26-2007, 11:27 PM

I don't think its unreasonable to put him on 22 at all, but why the massive overbet on the turn, what exactly does he think the Q changed? J10 just got there, and he shouldn't be that scared of a flush draw (as in he should be trying to get you along for the wrong price, not for a crazy price that you won't pay) I just don't understand what that turn bet means? What has he put you on after the flop that is happy to raise call, a draw would have to be a big part of your range.

I can't work that turn bet out at all.

Anyone?

vixticator · #10 11-26-2007, 11:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't work that turn bet out at all.

Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]No, I wouldn't worry about figuring it out. Makes no sense with almost any hand except some combo draw. I assume opponent isn't very bright though. He could be thinking, well, if he has JT so be it... thinks we have a flush draw and doesn't want to see river... whatever. On a rational level it doesn't make much sense.