10/25. Rate this bluff? What you think success rate is?

[4CardGrind]

Alright this hand got needlessly complicated because I made an impulsive/silly call on turn, but bear with me.

Hand #48013930-650 at Syracuse (Pot Limit Omaha)
Started at 15/Nov/07 00:23:18

Be_My_Guest is at seat 2 with $5611.
Rollover2k is at seat 5 with $2836.
The button is at seat 5.

Rollover2k posts the small blind of $10.
Be_My_Guest posts the big blind of $25.

Be_My_Guest: -- -- -- --
Rollover2k: Kc 2s 8h Ks

Pre-flop:

Rollover2k raises to $75. Be_My_Guest calls.

Flop (board: Qs 6d Jh):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $150.
Be_My_Guest calls.

Turn (board: Qs 6d Jh Jd):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $300.
Be_My_Guest raises to $600. Rollover2k calls.

River (board: Qs 6d Jh Jd Ac):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $1600.


Be_My_Guest is a pretty laggy player 60/30 ish... he seems a bit on tilt at the time because I sucked out and someone else had too and hit and run.

The real error is on the turn here. It's an obvious fold because if he is running a bluff, he is pounding any riv on me for sure, and I don't think I could stand up to the pressure. If he has a piece he is either betting/checking down riv, given that I want to check down my hand.. anytime he has a piece he wins too. Basically I only win when he is making a minraise bluff and giving up on the river. So that is the obv error.

However.... as played, what do you think of the river bet?

I mean, when he min raise/checks riv all the sudden I feel like he absolutely has to have a weak jack. Logic for me is, he raises flop with any two pair the way HU been going. Given that I bet two streets and called his raise he can't really put me on the peeling/floating type hand I have.. and even if he does I could have hit AA now.

So I figure in his seat he has to worry about QQ, AA, QJ, KT (which I would value bet and I beleive he knows this), and J6.

So assuming we don't fold the turn, is this a good spot to fire on river?

[4CardGrind]

Oh yeah other question.. what do you put his range as on both Turn and River?

[wazz]

I think you're ahead a lot here, but I guess this is what they mean by 'merging your ranges' and don't mind it horribly. He's very rarely full here, and if in the past you've shown a propensity to value-bet thin (i.e. KTxx here) this bet becomes a lot more believable. He ought to be folding any jack here that's not full, so I guess it just comes down to how often you think he's full here: very rarely, so it's a good bluff.

[4CardGrind]

just realized some error in my logic though.. I would value bet KT here... yet I am trying to bluff him off what I think is a weak Jack, doesnt make much sense.

[Big Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
just realized some error in my logic though.. I would value bet KT here... yet I am trying to bluff him off what I think is a weak Jack, doesnt make much sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

and...

[ QUOTE ]
pretty laggy player 60/30 ish... he seems a bit on tilt at the time

[/ QUOTE ]

equals a number of times approaching zero he will pass his trips.

gl

bdd

[sc000t]

I don't understand how you don't like this bluff. I think its necessary if your calling that turn raise, which I think is speculative to say the least.

I assume the opponent has a weak Jack as well, or is getting tricky with a AJxx type hand. But most of the time he would just valuebet a rivered fullhouse and we can't check behind here with so little showdown value so I like the bluff a lot.

A weak Jxxx hand doesn't beat much of the range he'll put you on after you call the turn c/r. I think he has to assume you're calling it with some sort of draw, Jack, or maybe an overpair + draw type hand.

Once you bluff the river, the only hands that the opponent can now beat in his mind are missed flush draws that are bluffing or some sort of AKQx dd type hand that decided not to check behind.

All in all, I think if the opponent is calling with trips he has to put you on a bluff that missed some sort of draw and there really arn't many hands that it looks like Jxxx beats in his eyes.

Bid Dave D makes a good point about him being on tilt, but I still like the bluff after the opponent takes this weak of a line.

Your bet sizing on the river is obviously dependant on how you've played him in the past up until this hand. You probably could sell a strong hand by betting less (around $1300) and save yourself $300 because I think if hes calling a $1300 bet here, that looks a little stronger and less pushy, then hes always calling a $1600 bet here that looks more pushy and less like it wants value...if that makes sense.

[gordo16]

I'll add a more detailed reply later on today, but I think that this is actually a pretty bad spot to bluff. The only hands that you are representing which beat villain are in my eyes AAxx and AJxx; Im assuming you 3bet turn with Qs full and are happy to check down 6s full on the river. Also, I think that this is a terrible spot to value-bet KT and I actually don't 100% believe you when you say that you would do it here. That being said, villain looks like he probably has a weak J, J6, or maybe rivered the KT str8. This is kind of weird logic on my part, but if he is a thoughtful, good player I think that he calls you here with almost all of his range aside from air obviously, whereas if he is a 'just play the cards' type of HU guy, then I think that this is an OK spot to put in a bluff. I just really think that you represent such a narrow range here that he has pretty good equity to call with weak trips, etc.

[cmyr]

I think villian could have any 4 here... a second barrel once the board pairs isn't an unusual play or anything. His lead, to me, makes it more likely he has a weak draw then a weak made hand, although they're both possible.

Your turn call is fine, since you're probably ahead. Once the Ace comes, I think his range narrows to a missed draw that's given up and is folding to anything, a weak ace that now wants to see the river, broadway that wants to see a river, or a monster that's hoping you've got enough of this to put in a bet.


As far as your range, it seems unlikely you've got two pair or a set on the flop, although you know this better then I do.

You may have broadway. You may have an overpair, one of just rivered the nuts. You may a low wrap that's missed.



I think what's important is what villian has led before, and how often he'd double barrel with not much. The hand you want to fold that you can reasonably expect to is a weak ace, and i'm not sure how much of his range that is.

[Rob121]

if i was going to bet the turn here i like something arond $400. your repping a stuburn AA,, Aj, or a turned boat maybe k10. I think the best he shows up with here is J6,66 maybe k10 all going for a check call.

[CrushinFelt]

His line makes the most sense for a weak jack that has shut down into c/c mode (and your current read makes it less likely that he's folding any jack on the river). I don't see any better hands folding (maybe a weak ace? I think that may be the only hand you're going to get him off of) or worse hands calling, so I think I check behind here.