10/25 . Spot . 150bb deep . Turn thoughts?

[blopp]

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This is the UB game right?

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How often is games running there? Limits?

[TimberBee]

I think it's a good analysis iggy, but to me, it looks more like a draw/combodraw he picked up on the turn. Could be AA with a FD(but does he check flop with that? Sometimes, I guess), or a ace high FD, with perhaps some straight outs.

But KT or TT is of course possible as well. But if he's got a draw more often, and KT a little less, it's still a push ofc.

[4CardGrind]

Thanks for doing some calculations iggy. Was walking home from class trying to do them in my head.. got no where.

Results

So this is what actually happened. I discounted any set other than tens... and by discounting I mean I thought there was noooo way he had KK,44, or 55, or AA for that matter. Really don't think he checks even the weakest AAxx hand here.

So the only range I could figure him for was AQJX and QJ9x w/ spades, KTxx, and TTxx...

My inclination was KTxx at first, but I suspect he bets flop with almost all KTxx hands as well (exclude hands like KT28, KT29, KT38... u know anything that doesn't matter an open ender/gutter to go with the pair. Just putting KTxx, TTxx, and the two big draws in without discounting anything I am 45%...

Anyways, I was running out of time so I pushed. I think TTxx makes up a pretty large percentage of his range and while he would make this play with KTxx everytime... I think this is a real small portion of his range.. real small.. top pair in posis in raised pot doesn't get checked often.

So I have roughly
$1,000 ev verse the draws * 50%
-$2,600 ev verse the TTxx * 40%

I'll say KTxx is 10% of range.. which may be generous

$1,750 ev when KTxx folds * 10% * 75% fold
$150 ev when KTxx calls * 10% * 25% call

$500 - 1040 + 131.25 + 3.75 = -405...

I guess long story short I don't feel like the draws (+$500 ev) dominate his range enough to offset the TTxx(-$2,600).

I'm sure there are holes in this analysis, but I think it is a fold.... like Gordo said, I come off as a nit.. i'm only 32/15 and rarely get caught bluffing in big pots (most bluffs on flop) so LS isn't going to be screwing around here much.

[gordo16]

I was actually saying that your perceived nittiness is a reason that you should push his turn bet here. I dont think that LS thinks on too many levels, and I would imagine that his general reasoning on this type of hand would be that of any player at the table, you are most likely to lay down a marginal hand after leading for the pot; this single fact, IMO, makes him more likely to push a combo-draw here, and I think that your play is therefore justified in this spot. Although, I do agree in your analysis that TTxx does make up a much larger part of his range than KTxx and, since you are only slightly ahead of a combo draw here, it is a very borderline. This was a great hand to post; very interesting spot.

[RoundTower]

I agree with everyone else who says he almost certainly has TT/combo draw. But you do have 6 outs against TT, and maybe as many as 7 to win against bare KT. Also, he might fold KT.

I think giving him TT 40% of the time is a bit much: if he does have it this often you are probably right and you should fold. But it's a lot easier to make a combo draw on the turn than it is to make specifically 2nd set. I think it's probably a close shove.

[Luckyspikes]

What the hell am i doing here, i thought it was a 10c / 25c game.


/going to the noobz posts.

[Perestroika]

He has to be thinking at least on level three if you consider him pretty decent for this limit of play, therefore, you HAVE to discuss what he thinks you have, and then what you will think he has from his raise. I hardly doubt players at this level make money solely from the strength of their cards alone. So a good question is what range do you lead on the turn here?

[blopp]

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This is definitely a tricky spot. At first glance, it looks like he has either KT or TT as any other made hand would have led the flop, and a combo draw looks somewhat unlikely if still possible. By combinations, KT is 4 times as likely as TT.

On the other hand, we have to ask what kind of hands villain is checking behind the flop with. It's pretty dry and if he's reasonably aggressive, you'd expect a naked king to be betting a large amount of the time. Of course, you'd kind of expect air to be betting there too, anbd you can see the logic with something like KQJT that he wouldn't want to get raised off of his two pair draws so I don't know how much you can really discount KT.

As a rough guess on his range, let's say he has KT 70% of the time, TT 20% of the time, and a combo draw 10% of the time. Now if we reraise, our hand looks really strong and villain can't discount any of the flopped sets, so let's say if we're up against KT, we get a fold half the time. For simplicity's sake, I'll assume the player in the middle always folds, since he'll fold a lot and when he does call, he's not likely to gain much equity.

If that's the case, than pushing gets us $1760 35% of the time, breaks us even 35% of the time (the dead money in the middle is made up for by the fact that we don't have much for redraws), costs us $2390 20% of the time (giving us 4.5 outs vs. TT on average), and makes us about $1216 on average when we're against a combo draw (figuring that we typically have 60% equity in that case).

That means that with a range weighted very heavily toward a good made hand and not including any K5 type hands at all, we're still gaining $260 on average with a push vs. a fold. I think that's enough to show that pushing's clearly superior to folding. On the other hand, calling's just bad since we allow the player in the middle to stay around cheap, we'll never know if he hit or not, and we don't really have "safe cards" anyway except for a king since the main hand we're worried about is TT. I'd definitely get it in here.

(Obviously, you can't make all those calculations when you're playing, but you have to figure more simply, that if he'll play KT or TT there, and you get him to fold KT a decent amount, you're going to be in a pretty good spot.

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solid post