Won $ at Showdown %?

[cowboy.up]

i'm finding my AF in pokertracker and the won w/o showdown in pokerev. why would i be running hotter than the sun? i have no reference to what that stat should look like though. over that sample i'm down 3.5 buyins (last 20k hands).

my stats over that same timeframe were: 17.9 VPIP, 25% WTSD, 13 PFR, 52 W$SD, and 3.2 AF

[thac]

Those look fine.. If it's anything higher than that you're probably too tight at showdowns.

[Mr_Pathetic]

If you avg more then 40% W$WSF, a Went2SD of say 22-25% and a Won@SD of around 50-52%(can be lower if your W$WSF is high) then you pick up enough money in non-showdown pots.

My stats are like 41% W$WSF 26% go to SD and 53% won@sd and filter PT for won without showdown and I see 1.97 BB/Hand in a 33k hand sample at NL10 on stars. And that is with a ton of tilt induced showdowns causing me to lose like 3PTBB at showdown.

[cowboy.up]

now my PT won w/o showdown is .7 PTBB/100 not sure of the discrepancies...

[thac]

Won w/o showdown is every hand you won without showdown.. that doesn't solve anything really IMO.

[cowboy.up]

no that was my second question on this thread, is it ok to have a negataive won w/o showdown.

[thac]

Wait, in the PT filter he meant.

A lot of everyone's green line in the PokerEV is below the other lines. That's standard for a person with tight stats.

[cowboy.up]

ok got ya.

[Pokey]

I've got a few thoughts about this.

<font color="blue">Won Money At Showdown:</font> I've never had mine above 50%. Right now, I'm running around 46% or so. Anything above 50% would be a leak for the way I play, but it MIGHT be acceptable for someone else. Why would you want it low?

1. When villain bets the river you should call when your odds of winning are noticeably below 50%. Say you've got a $10 pot and villain leads the river for $5. So long as your odds of winning at showdown are greater than 33% you should be calling this bet. If you win 40% of the time your call was +EV, and folding when you've only got a 40% chance of winning would be a leak.

2. If you've got a greater than 50% chance of being ahead, you should usually be betting the river. Obviously, if your opponent is a tricky-trappy type who loves to check-raise rivers and bluff check-raise rivers, checking behind is a good choice. However, those are fairly rare opponents. More often, a river check means that they are willing to take a free showdown but might reluctantly call a bet. If you will be ahead more than half the time at showdown after you get called, you should be betting. Villains will often have nothing and fold, meaning that your W$SD rate drops -- that doesn't mean the bet was wrong, it just means you were "unlucky" that your opponent's hand was so weak he couldn't even call your value bet.

3. You need to bluff the occasional river. Sometimes you've got absolute air on the river. You bet your suited ace preflop, c-bet with a flush draw on the flop, semibluffed the flush draw on the turn, and missed on the river. However, your opponent just check-called all the way down...at this point, you think there's a 50% chance he'll fold to a river bet. So you put out a 1/2-pot bet. Half the time he folds and you win the pot, the other half of the time he calls and you lose the pot. Your W$SD on these bets is 0%, but you played it perfectly and made a +EV play.

<font color="blue">Won Money When Saw Flop:</font> under normal circumstances, you'll want this number to be fairly big. I think I'm sitting at around 41% or so, though I don't remember exactly. However, there are a few extra considerations to take into account.

1. W$SF rises as you move up in stakes. At $5NL you're playing with monopoly money. Nobody knows how to fold, so your only chance of winning the pot is by having the best hand. If you're seeing flops five-way, you're not going to win very often. It might be extremely profitable to play SUPER loose preflop (like 50% VPIP or so) and then fold almost all flops, only continuing when you flop very well. You would then have a W$SF of 10% or so, but you'd be raking in the dough, since you'd have a W$SD of maybe 80% and you'd be all-in on all of those hands. As you move up in stakes your opponents discover that the "Fold" button isn't just decorative. The better the opponent the stronger the hand they'll be capable of folding, meaning that postflop aggression and skill can lead you to win many hands even if you don't have the best hand. At that point, a W$SF over 50% becomes entirely possible and profitable.

2. W$SF depends on your playing style. A LAG is likely to have a lower W$SF than a TAG, since the TAG gets more postflop respect and is capable of folding out more opponents. The LAG will probably have to lay down more hands (as a fraction of the hands played) than a LAG would, leading to a lower W$SF.

3. W$SF skyrockets as the number of opponents seeing the flop drops. In a heads-up pot where you were the preflop raiser your W$SF should be WELL over 50%. In a four-way flop when you checked from the BB your W$SF will probably be under 25%. This is partially a function of your preflop tightness and aggression, but also a function of the opponents on your table.

4. Good table selection will usually lower your W$SF. Good tables are ones with loose and passive opponents -- those are exactly the ones that you will have the least folding equity against. As a result, you'll probably win fewer hands, but the pots you DO win will (hopefully) be much larger than if you were playing in a rock garden.

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There should be some coordination between W$SF, WSD, and W$SD. The more you win when you see the flop, the lower your "went to showdown" number will be. The more you go to showdown the lower your "W$SD" will be. These numbers will also relate to your VPIP, your PFR, your aggression, your positional awareness, your completion rate from the small blind, your steal rate, your folding to steal rates, your table image, and your opponents. Don't think that you can easily "fix W$SF" or something. Most of these numbers are a complex result of underlying causes related to your playing style and your opponents. The only numbers that I think are frequently "broken" in a "fixable" way are WSD/W$SD. If you are going to showdown too infrequently (under 24% or so) and winning at showdown too often (over 50% or so) that usually means you need to start value-betting the river more often. This is especially true at the micro-stakes where you don't have to worry about tricky opponents check-raising and bluff check-raising the river.

Find Valuetown. You won't reach showdown as often, but you'll make much more money when you do.

[cowboy.up]

great post, thanks pokey.