Comments on dead even eV call?

[0524432]

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if you are crushing the table, why is your stack under the buy in? just wondering.

this hand is so ridiculously spewy i dont even know what to say. what range of hands are you putting villain on to even consider making this play? IMO, this is maniacaly bad. also, what hennerz and pokey said.

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im putting him solidly on a range which has no pair and is drawing

[DaycareInferno]

you don't think he would raise you if he had something?

[kurto]

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This 39-30 was extremely fed up with me crushing the tbl.

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Hero (BB): $49.75


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???

[cowboy.up]

I don't like the play on the flop at all. Even though he was drawing, evaulate his range with what he would push with and I think you're behind 90% of the hands. You need to have a sure read that he has air, and on a board like that, basically the only thing he *might* have is AQ, KQ and Q10 that you beat, everything else and you're drawing. As played fold to his flop raise, I don't see 50/50 on this hand not knowing his hole cards, it's more like 80/20 villains way (I don't have PStove on my work laptop to run the numbers but he could call preflop with virtually any PP, and if he's "mad" you're "dominating" with your below max-buyin stack then J10s+ would be in his range, so I'd say no it's not worth it.

[Kasane]

Hm... CO does seem to be the one with the stack, rather than hero.

This is seriously awful. From your own read you say that villain has been folding. He suddenly wakes up and you want to go with a hero super thin call? Does not compute. Your range is whacked and heavily influenced by the actually outcome.

[netstorm]

[ QUOTE ]
84,150 games 0.005 secs 16,830,000 games/sec

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.638% 60.64% 00.00% 51027 0.00 { 99, AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 39.362% 39.36% 00.00% 33123 0.00 { AhKc }

ty hennnerz

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Where is TT+ in this stove ?!

I dont wanna jump and repeat what everyone has already said, but you a behind soo often here it isnt even worth thinking about calling / pushing here.

This is incredibly spewy, and you are being way too results oriented here.

This is the first 3bet pot you guys have played! A 3bet pot is a whole different ballpark than raising preflop and cbetting!!!!!!!

[Student Caine]

I think that the biggest issue that I have with this is that you state he is "folding to every cbet" and then shove when he finally raises one. So our best case scenario here is a draw or a pair smaller than Aces or Kings.

Our worst case scenario is a set.

If we want to take his range as a true 30%, we get the following:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.652% 54.87% 01.78% 161331 5243.50 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 43.348% 41.56% 01.78% 122212 5243.50 { AhKc }

If we want to remove premium hands, assuming that he would have 4-bet us preflop we get:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.646% 56.38% 00.26% 139548 650.00 { 99-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K5s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo-A7o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 43.354% 43.09% 00.26% 106652 650.00 { AhKc }

So in these scenarios, given the dead money we would be ok to get the money in.



The problem I see here is that given the "folded to every cbet read" we are more likely looking at this:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.523% 75.52% 00.01% 104666 9.00 { JJ, 99, 33, A9s, A3s, KJs, K9s, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo, A9o, KJo, K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+ }
Hand 1: 24.477% 24.47% 00.01% 33916 9.00 { AhKc }

So we are getting roughly 2:1 with zero fold equity. I really don't think that I like this.

[Leviathan101]

this is terrible, what are you trying to do? and if it's perfectly 0ev with the rake included, what is better for your image? looking like a maniac when you are currently running over everyone, or being a conservative player and only betting when you have a hand?

[bazooka87]

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replying to both Pokey and Hennnerz. Those pots were all ones which I opened pre and cbet the flop. This was the first 3bet pot we played. I new he wasnt folding any draw on this flop, and I put him on KQ more than anything and expected a flop call being ahead more like 70-30.

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...wtf, you put him on something more than anything else? You are getting crushed by his range here