10NL trying to work out EV

[terencetsao]

based on my glance
i think hand 1 is close..
and
hand 2 is probably -EV

[Skuzzy]

In this case for hand 1, I think the estimate of equity is only marginally high. Having the nut flush draw makes our hand stronger than this method of estimation would indicate, not having it makes the estimate OK.

The reason is as is carnivalhobo suggests about villains range here. He has potentially a wide range to push TT+ and Axs in hearts. The pairs and set hands account for about 27 combos, the flush hands he may have would mostly be larger Axs hands for about 5 or 6 combos. We are therefore drawing live against 80% of his range and for the other 20% we are drawing against a higher flush draw we can still win about 25% of the time when we pair and villain doesn't. As you can see the relatively small number of flush draws that are likely plus the high number of hands villain can be pushing make our draw quite robust.

When we have the nut flush draw on this board we gain quite a bit from having 3 extra outs to beat KK, QQ and JJ hands (accounting for 18 combos and therefore about 70% of his range) aswell as by not having to consider nut flush draws as part of villains push range. The result would probably be an increased equity to about 40%+.

[crashzzz]

hand 1)

there is 15.04$ in the pot and it's 7$ for you to call, therefore getting 2.08:1 pot odds to call.

you've got a flush draw therefore needing 1.86:1 pot odd to call.

EV = 1*(15.04$) + 1.86*(-7.24$) = 15.04$ - 13.46$ == + 1.54$

therefore, a call would have positive expectation

edit: that is true, if you believe your flush would win the pot only

[crashzzz]

hand 2)

there is 15.98$ in the pot, and it's 9.83$ for you to call. Giving a 1.62:1 pot odds.

you've got 12 outs, needing 2.833:1 odds or better to call.

EV = 1*(15.98$) + 2.833(-9.83$) = 15.98 - 27.84$ == -11.86$

Therefore, a call would have negative expectation.

[maciczka]

im not counting ev on fly, but as played, I will prolly fold both. and hand 1 is far more better to call with than the second one which is a clear fold to me.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
this discounted outs stuff is fine for some quick in game stuff, but really you guys need to work with pokerstove and learn how these hands do against a reasonable RANGE for villain not just how many outs you think you have.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, when reviewing hands off the table pokerstove is much better. And it is free and easy.

[nukewell]

wooster...why did u add 5 in the first hand and 4 in the second hand to the EV calculation

[mojed]

In hand 1, as people suggest, you have to discount your flush draw outs given that 3 of a kind can make a full house, villain may be drawing to higher flush etc. However, you can also add perhaps half an out as you have a back door straight draw.