Hand Analysis Question - theoretical hand

[Skuzzy]

I'm trying to work out what line is best here but don't know how to compare calling with pushing. I've already been discussing this hand elsewhere and heard arguments for both but all are somewhat inconclusive and often contradictory. Such as pushing is best to fold AK with his draw and calling is best to keep AK in with his draw.

I'm assuming villain has JJ+ or AK here.

It would appear that villain can call a push profitably with AK (7 outs/30% equity against my KK) but I assume he will fold a decent % of the time because his call is very tight for him against our range (JJ+) even though he fairs better against our actual hand.

If we call I assume we fold to any A or Ten on the turn and will get it all in on any other card. I think villain will bet with AK 25% and c/f the rest and always get all in with JJ+.




6 players
Stack sizes: 100BB effective

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to 4BB</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to 18BB</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (40BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets 40BB</font>.


Help...

[orange]

is villan's range really JJ+? or AK?

I usually just shove the flop and feel fine about it.

[Skuzzy]

[ QUOTE ]
is villan's range really JJ+? or AK?

I usually just shove the flop and feel fine about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. pretty much exactly. The only doubt I'd have is whether JJ is even in there.

[Jamougha]

Given your detailed reads this is just a pokerstove problem.

[BobboFitos]

This is a shove under normal circumstances, under your criteria, it's a flop fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qs 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.761% 35.27% 02.49% 7333 517.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 62.239% 59.75% 02.49% 12422 517.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


[/ QUOTE ]
Technically we're putting in 82bbs to win ~204bbs, so before our flop action given what you say we need 40.2% equity, which against that range we do not.

[ QUOTE ]
It would appear that villain can call a push profitably with AK (7 outs/30% equity against my KK) but I assume he will fold a decent % of the time because his call is very tight for him against our range (JJ+) even though he fairs better against our actual hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
If you think anyone pots/folds this with AK, you're mistaken. He will be getting 32:204 (!!!) requiring LESS then 16% equity. Even against the tightest of ranges:
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qs 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.160% 18.87% 00.29% 26904 411.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 80.840% 80.55% 00.29% 114834 411.00 { JJ+ }


[/ QUOTE ]
Villain is pot committed. So, no, villain wont ever bet/fold here, unless they misclick.

[Skuzzy]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think anyone pots/folds this with AK, you're mistaken. He will be getting 32:204 (!!!) requiring LESS then 16% equity. Even against the tightest of ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's 40BB on the flop , he bets 40BB, we push 82BB, pot is 162BB and it's 42BB to call. That's 162:42 so surely much more of a decision.

[Skuzzy]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your detailed reads this is just a pokerstove problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

... and it's a question about how exactly i do that. I can work out the EV of a push when villain calls with AK or folds AK but I don't understand or even know where to start when it comes to comparing the 'push' line to an alternate line of calling the flop and playing the turn.

This is a fundamental gap in my understanding I need some help with. The hand is almost irrelevant, other than it's the hand that I first realised I didn't know how to compare one line to the other.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think anyone pots/folds this with AK, you're mistaken. He will be getting 32:204 (!!!) requiring LESS then 16% equity. Even against the tightest of ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's 40BB on the flop , he bets 40BB, we push 82BB, pot is 162BB and it's 42BB to call. That's 162:42 so surely much more of a decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
no, if you bet AK, you need 16% equity to call once shoved on. or, calling 32 to win 204.

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think anyone pots/folds this with AK, you're mistaken. He will be getting 32:204 (!!!) requiring LESS then 16% equity. Even against the tightest of ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's 40BB on the flop , he bets 40BB, we push 82BB, pot is 162BB and it's 42BB to call. That's 162:42 so surely much more of a decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
no, if you bet AK, you need 20.6%% equity to call once shoved on. or, calling 42 to win 204.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given your detailed reads this is just a pokerstove problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

... and it's a question about how exactly i do that. I can work out the EV of a push when villain calls with AK or folds AK but I don't understand or even know where to start when it comes to comparing the 'push' line to an alternate line of calling the flop and playing the turn.

This is a fundamental gap in my understanding I need some help with. The hand is almost irrelevant, other than it's the hand that I first realised I didn't know how to compare one line to the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your strategy for playing after a call? Assuming he never bluff shoves blanked AK on the turn for his remaining $42, it seems like you'd have to fold to any turn shove.

Take into account what happens when a K turns, when a club turns.

If he checks, you have to estimate how often he checks to trap, then see if it makes sense to shove yourself. If you assume he always shoves JJ+, then a shove once he checks would make sense.

EDIT: but it seems like by now you're dealing with tiny equity differences between plays which are prone to a lot of error.