Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question

[heyyo2]

Not sure if this is in the right forum.

Very few people have the money to just put in 10K to play this tourney because the field is really good. But say someone an average player who plays low stakes say 100NL and below but got staked by someone to play in this tournament. Let's just say the backer was rich and told this player to play. He has lot of money to blow lets just say he was a billionaire. If this average player plays this touranment say 26 times which is every sunday for half a year, can he win this tournament 1 time assuming the field is 8 everytime and maybe sometimes 16 but more times 8?

Is there a chance he won't even win 1 match because the field is just too good? I mean there is going to be luck involved and bad beats which can help the worser player but do you guys think a guy like this has a shot to at least just get passed the first round if he plays this tourney for 26 straight weeks? I know that if these heads up matches are liek the sit and go ones that stevebets plays for 5K, then I think the answer would be a clear yes. Does anyone disagree here? But if it was the 30 minute level and 10K in chips, I still think this player can win once right?

[daryn]

to say that he would never get past the first round is absurd. you could literally push every single hand and probably win 20% of the time, even if the other guy knew you were pushing every hand.

[heyyo2]

Well i am specifically talking about if they were playing the high stakes structure they currently have. Even if that was the case, is it almost certain that the average player will win once then? I know it would be absurd if it was those heads up sit and goes on pokerstars with 1500 chips and 10/20 blinds.

[arcdog]

If your question is would an average player have a realistic shot at winning an 8 or 16 player tourney vs. great players over 20 or so plays, then obv that answer is yes. If the question is posed "is this +ev for the backer," then that is no. Next questions please.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
to say that he would never get past the first round is absurd. you could literally push every single hand and probably win 30-40% of the time, even if the other guy knew you were pushing every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[warrantofice]

I don't think you understand what daryn is saying. He's saying that this fake person that knows very little about poker, if he were to play against a 'pro' in a heads up tournament with the 10k structure.
The donkey, by simply moving in every single hand would force the pro to wait till he could call profitably. The pro would like call with (99-AA + A10s-AKs + AJo-Ako) (my guess as to his range of hands) Even against these strong starting hand, the donkey would likely win 20% of the time (note: I did not actually run this through on PokerStove) so in an 8 man match you have to win 3 matchs, the donkey would average a win rake is 1 in 5 matches. So in conclusion

I suck at math and can't even do this simple equation. Whoever does it could you show the work, cause I need to brush up a bit.

[daryn]

ya 20% just an absolute guess off the top of my head, of course it depends on the structure.

[warrantofice]

Okay, i thought that math was actually harder.

So for and 8 person headsup tournament you have to win 3 matches. If you win on match 1 in 5 times that means
5 x 5 x 5 = 125
So you will win 1 time in 125 or .008% of the time.
And for a 16 person
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625
So thats 1 time in 625 tries or .00016% of the time.

Now this numbers do seem a little to slim to me. Could someone explain why my very simple math is wrong, or prove why i am correct.
And could some pokerstove the handranges that i put in against and completely random hand. I'd like to see the exact odds of winning, by pushing ever hand, obviously this doesn't take into account the amount of chips won by the folding of the 'pro' player and how this may increase the odds slightly for the donk.

[elliot]

how many BB deep are starting stacks?

[BrandiFan]

[ QUOTE ]
how many BB deep are starting stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]200, with 30 minute blinds.