200: 99 Flops a Set on Crappy Board

[QTip]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $437.60
BB: $186.80
UTG: $181.30
UTG+1: $222.55
MP1: $144.05
MP2: $223.15
MP3: $118.00
Hero (CO): $144.00 (Stack is such because lost previous hand and FT sucks for reloading)
BTN: $195.25

Reads: <font color="blue">EP limper is a loose passive player. He'd open limped KK and so forth and plays everything very passively. I had seen him raise the turn after flopping a set of Queens, but that's all the raising he has done.

The button was tight and semi-aggressive

The sb was a lagtard. Here are the notes I have on him: raised 3 players from the BB with AQo and led
1/2 into them with 2 pair on monotone board
cc with A9o
fired 3 barrels with FF into 3 opp.- overbet the flop
open limp 88 from EP</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2.00, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, BTN calls $6.00, SB calls $5.00, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $4.00

Flop: ($26) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $8.00</font>, UTG+1 calls $8.00, Hero ?

What and Why? If betting, how much and why?

[sccl]

raise to 50-60 ! Given your stack size you can push the turn easily after that.
You have to charge draws, if someone has a straight you still have a good equity.

[BT2]

definitely raise
there are loads of worse hands that will pay you off, and even if someone has the straight you are not far behind. this is a WA/SB scenario. get it in.

[Kos13]

Not raising is a crime. Find a way to get your stack in ASAP.

[Blake Kyles]

Yeah, this is defiantly a raise here on the turn. Make him pay if he's semi-bluffing, and even if you're beat you have good equity.

Aside from that, you're PF raise seems a little bit too small considering the limper. If you'd raised more PF, you'd be giving the hands you're afraid of atm a worse price to try and flop something like this. Either way, there’s no reason not to raise here.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
definitely raise
there are loads of worse hands that will pay you off, and even if someone has the straight you are not far behind. this is a WA/SB scenario. get it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how this is a WA/SB scenario. I'm about 35% to a made straight and about 65% to a big draw.

[CazicT]

Raise 50, call a push from SB. If UTG pushes, ouch ugly, probably have to call it though.

[QTip]

I'd like to put my thoughts out here to be discussed.

I called here, and here was/is my thinking?

I'm not one to play "scared poker", but I'm trying to apply what I'm learning in PNLHE here.

First of all, we can't be overly happy with our hand here. There are actually 51 combos that are made hands that beat us. There are also a decent number of draws possible that we are about 40% against as well. This can easily be 60 hands against which we are dogs. Any of these will fit at least 2 of my 3 opponents ranges.

On top of this, there's 25% of the deck I'm not wanting to see hit. I know some would say this is the reason to raise, but let's hold off on that for a moment. Also, a side note, I thought there was something in this book about a lot of cards that can hurt your hand being a reason to sometimes hold back on the flop...but I can't find it right now.

Also, we need to consider our hand against our opponent's all in range...not just their range, but what shape will we be in if we get all in. Against two of my 3 opponents, UTG and button, I'm a dog the vast majority of the time we get all in. However, probably not more than a 2:1 dog.

My hand isn't such where I'm saying "I'm committed". Granted, if I could get all in with the sb here, I would. So, in my mind, if I get all in here against 2 of 3 of my opponents, it's with great reluctance.

In terms of commitment, a raise from me for the $50 range puts in 1/3 of my starting stack, so I really need to examine this move carefully. I do not want to put in here and then be folding to button or UTG. However, at that point, I would most likely be "reluctantly committed". To quote from page 64 "When you are reluctantly committed, look for alternative betting lines that increase your expectation, and consider keeping the pot small."

Now, if I just call here, I can actually use my position to my advantage to gain more information and make a better commitment decision either on the flop (if button raises) or on the turn. I would be at the commitment threshold on the turn (assuming button does not raise) and can then more clearly maximize my expectation.

Anyway, that's where I'm at with it. Rip away.

[CazicT]

Some good points QTip. I think our chances all-in vs. UTG+1 aren't too bad if he is calling, if he is the one pushing, then they probably aren't as good, but he could have an underset for instance. He has raised in the past once, when he had the nuts, if he had the nuts here, wouldn't he have raised? I guess someone this passive you never know.

Basically there is only one possible hand that we would be drawing very thin too and that is the overset. I think this means we are at this point committed. That might change if we saw the turn and didn't like it, which I think is a reason to raise. If we get raised by SB sweet, let's do it. If we get raised by UTG+1, then maybe we can fold. He is predictable enough so if we weren't getting odds to draw to the FH, we can bail can't we? I think there is something in PNL about going over the 1/3 mark vs. predictable opponent might be OK. I've only read the book once so far though so maybe I got mixed up.

I don't know, maybe i'm too in love with sets, but I just think our hand is too good, but too vulnerable, not to raise vs. 3 people.

[ActionStan]

You really need to raise. I think there is an argument for just moving in. A pot sized raise is going to be around $60. Moving in is around 2x the pot or so. That's not a ridiculous overbet. There's no raise that doesn't marry you to this pot and shove in some ways represents a draw. I think we get a number of draws, pair + draw and 2 pair hands to call us. More than likely we have UTG + 1 beat. If you want to stick in a pot sized raise, that's fine too. In any case, if we smooth call the button has a great opportunity to bluff us off what is a pretty good hand with only 75BB to work with. Maybe SB flopped gin, but from your read, mostly not. We have outs if that is the case.