one more river spot vs. 2p2er

[tannenj]

villain is the same guy from this hand. he thought this hand was interesting and that i should post it. i think this one might be too game flow-based to generate good discussion, but here it is anyway. same reads.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $202
Hero (BTN): $221.55
SB: $220.90
BB: $252.65
UTG: $188.90
MP: $205.80

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $8</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15

Turn: ($49) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $34.75</font>, Hero calls $34.75

River: ($118.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $148.05 and is All-In</font>

[willw9]

Flop is obviously standard. You expect him to double barrel the turn, so your call is definetely fine. I'm not really sure how you can fold the river though. It's a great card for villain to 3barrel, and you know he's capable of it. Also, how would villain play Qx? Isn't this a pretty easy shove? I dunno, it looks like with your read, history, and the previous hand (assuming you got looked up and lost), villain is triple barreling with his entire range here. You need to be good here around like 40% of the time to breakeven, so just stove his preflop raising range (probably like top 17-18% of hands), plug in this board and KQo. You definetely have better than 40% equity, so I'm not crazy about a fold at all.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
You expect him to double barrel the turn, so your call is definetely fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he's value betting worse on the turn sometimes, too

[loosbastard]

Would you ever have flatted 7x twice here? If yes, does he know this?

[carnivalhobo]

i think this is one of those spots where its a good spot to bluff but by the time villain gets to the river you are probably behind his range. Its probably close, but i dont think anyone here can tell you the right answer.

[terp]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you ever have flatted 7x twice here? If yes, does he know this?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is fairly irrelevant.

the key to this hand is his turn doubling freq. assume he's cbetting the flop basically 100% and shoving the river damn near 100%. the question then is how often is he betting the turn and how well do does KQ on a 77QA3 board fare against that percentage of his preflop range

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
this is fairly irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this irrelevant? If op's range includes a lot of 7x combos, bluffing here clearly isn't as attractive from villain's POV.

[bigbabyjesus]

This might be the first hand I've read online where I'm actually curious as to the timing of your calls. If you called quickly on both streets it helps villian rule out a seven and put you on a Q.. people like to think they don't have these timing tells but they do. If you had a seven, you'd think about what to do on the turn and river for a few seconds (it's possible you did, though, and would actually make this an easier river fold.)

If you basically instacall his flop and turn bets it reps a Q everytime. Possible he is not thinking on this level but I think most people can put that together. It's close but I'd fold either way.

[tannenj]

fwiw, i can have a seven here very, very easily. at the time of the hand, though, i don't know how aware of this he was.

about timing tells: i probably called the flop and turn bets fairly quickly, but not instantly. maybe within 10-15 seconds of the bets? i am looking at the hh in pt and i didn't time bank, which i tend to do a lot, perhaps more than anyone else playing these games, heh. fwiw, the villain bet the flop and turn without much hesitation but requested time on the river before overbet shoving.

i am more than capable of calling quickly on the flop and turn with a seven and tend to be ultra-concerned with balancing issues like this, possibly even too concerned. again, it's impossible for me to know whether the villain knows this, and i should note that we've only played like 1500 hands or so together.