Standard call? $55 NLTRN

[pokercurious]

1. I think the call is ok - putting him on [KJ, QJ, JT, AJ, 9T, 22+], you have 27.4% equity:

Board: Js 8s 4h

Wins Ties Equity
27.40% 0.00% 27.40% ( AhKh )
72.60% 0.00% 72.60% ( KJ, QJ, JT, AJ, 9T, 22+, )

Add in one gutshot, and the call is close, but good:

Board: Js 8s 4h

Wins Ties Equity
31.55% 0.00% 31.55% ( AhKh )
68.45% 0.00% 68.45% ( KJ, QJ, JT, AJ, 9T, 22+, QT )

Add in anything else, and it becomes even better.

2. I think the question here is how often Villain will call or jam a 270 cbet. This happened to be a weird flop, but I think he folds most flops given the preflop betting and a cbet of 270. This is assuming he's predictable enough to always reraise with KK+.

If he'll lead out with as wide a range as he raise-calls preflop, I think check-raising would work pretty well. If you check and he jams, then I think you probably fold.

3. Frankly, I can see arguments for cbetting less, more, and 270, so I'm going to plant myself firmly in the 'confused' camp here.

And can somebody explain to me why flat-calling the PF raise is so terrible? Your options post-flop aren't limited to check-folding 2/3 of the time. Given a preflop flat call, this seems like a good sort of flop to float, looking to bet a scare card. Again, if Villain is predictable enough to have reraised with the huge pairs, this seems like not a terrible line.

Then again, I'm still learning to think about this stuff, so please show me where I'm wrong.

[dboy23]

villain reraises any pair pf. I've seen him do it several times, the last time he 4bet me allin pf he had 22. So I would think most pairs are out of his range.

[pokercurious]

In that case, the call becomes even clearer:

Board: Js 8s 4h

Wins Ties Equity
37.89% 0.00% 37.89% ( AhKh )
62.11% 0.00% 62.11% ( AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, 9T, QT )

Add in AK and AQ, and it gets even juicier, even if we assume he has a flush draw EVERY time:

Board: Js 8s 4h

Wins Ties Equity
32.90% 7.64% 40.54% ( AhKh )
51.82% 7.64% 59.46% ( AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 9sTs, QsTs, )

[dboy23]

what if we also add A8, 89, T8, 87 to the range?

[ChicagoRy]

I'd always reraise this PF, but if you're going to raise more than 270 you better raise a lot more. Putting in 25% of your stack PF here is really really bad. So is calling here IMO, you're hand is way too strong to call and dick around with OOP, especially with villain being all too eager to 4-bet shove hands and probably call super light (this isn't confirmed from what I've read, but I'd imagine he's calling your 270 super light).

As played if I'm betting I need to have a good amount of fold equity (seems like you do bc of his PF range) and have the right equity against his range to call a shove (seems like you do).

Also, did you add in the fact that FTP has 8 aces in the deck when you did your equity calc for this hand?

[pokercurious]

[ QUOTE ]
what if we also add A8, 89, T8, 87 to the range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only adding those to his range makes it a closer call, but still a call:

Board: Js 8s 4h

Wins Ties Equity
33.11% 0.00% 33.11% ( AhKh )
66.89% 0.00% 66.89% ( AJ KJ QJ TJ 9T QT A8 89 T8 87 )