How is this calculated?

[yoda25]

I read in the Chris Ferguson section of full tilt poker that hero has AhQh with 3 callers. The flop is Qc8h7h and the 3 callers hold 10h9h, 6c5c and 8s8c. He notes after the flop 8-8 is the favorite but he will win only 44% of the time.

How is this 44% determined?

thank you in advance for your help,

Yoda

[Triantafylidis]

because a J 6 9 or 4 gives the villains a straight? Why dont you see this ?

[sivadom]

extremely useful tool: http://www.pokerstove.com/
(44% figure quoted seems to be very slightly off)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.516% 18.52% 00.00% 437047 0.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 23.557% 23.56% 00.00% 556030 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 2: 15.586% 15.59% 00.00% 367890 0.00 { 6c5c }
Hand 3: 42.340% 42.34% 00.00% 999380 0.00 { 8c8s }

[yoda25]

Triant- I was making this harder than it is. Thanks. I didn't look forward to the villians having a 36% chance to win leaving the 8-8 with a 44%. Stupid oversight on my part.

[jay_shark]

Here is a useful way in determining pocket 8's chances of winning .

There are 4 jacks , 3 sixes , 3 nines and four 4's which are considered outs . Now if we use the 4X rule , where x is the number of outs for your opponents , then your probability of winning is ~ 100-(4+3+3+4)*4 = 44 .

That's how he got 44 .

[yoda25]

Thanks everyone this has made it clearer.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a useful way in determining pocket 8's chances of winning .

There are 4 jacks , 3 sixes , 3 nines and four 4's which are considered outs . Now if we use the 4X rule , where x is the number of outs for your opponents , then your probability of winning is ~ 100-(4+3+3+4)*4 = 44 .

That's how he got 44 .

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm....didnt u leave out all the hearts? and the fact that if the board pairs at any point 88 wins so that cuts into "out" equity?

with one card left you could sum up the other 3 players outs and thus equity and minus that from 1 to get 88's chances of winning, or count the cards that arent winners for those 3 ie give 88 the pot and do it that way. With two cards to come where one can boat up and kill any redraws its a bit more complicated I believe?

OP just use poker stove

[jay_shark]

You don't need pokerstove . For practical purposes , this type of approximation is good enough . Some special considerations are very minor which can be neglected which is why the 4x rule is so useful .

Also , the reason why I didn't include the hearts as outs is because these outs are offset by your redraws .

[R Gibert]

You left out the heart flush, runner Aces, runner queens, 88's redraws or 88's lack of any redraws when Th9h makes a str8 flush, etc.

The 4X rule is off by at least 5% at the level of 14 outs. Also, the 4X rule is intended for 47 unseen cards rather than 41. The fact you got 44% is a funny coincidence.

I'm sure your suggestion, "That's how he got 44," would make his eyes roll.

[jay_shark]

R.Gilbert , it looks like you're trying to be a nit here .

The runner queens and runner aces are not going to change the outcome very much . Why do you not see this ?

I will repeat again , the flush cards will be somewhat offset by your redraws with 8's .

Would you prefer that I use the 4.25X rule ?

Ok here it goes .

100-(4+3+3+4)*4.25 = 40.5 . That is NOT a coincidence .