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  #1  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:35 PM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Default Probability question

Hey,

Suppose you are going to raise with 20% of your overall distribution, and an opponent is going to 3-bet with 5% of his.

Is the probability of him 3-betting you when you raise simply 5%? You wouldn't do .2*.05, right?

Dumb question but just not quite sure.
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  #2  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:48 PM
nihil2501 nihil2501 is offline
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Default Re: Probability question

5%
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  #3  
Old 12-01-2007, 05:22 PM
Pot Odds RAC Pot Odds RAC is offline
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Default Re: Probability question

Less than 5%

If we can assume that his 5% is completely contained as a subset of our 20% - therefore when we're going in, some of his distribution is taken, making it less likely that his distribution will occur.
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  #4  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:25 PM
JulioYalil JulioYalil is offline
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Default Re: Probability question

use the probability forum, it's right under general gamblin
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  #5  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:32 PM
ronitonline ronitonline is offline
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Default Re: Probability question

just valuebet, noob. stop playing with FPS.
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  #6  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:30 PM
nihil2501 nihil2501 is offline
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Default Re: Probability question

[ QUOTE ]
Less than 5%

If we can assume that his 5% is completely contained as a subset of our 20% - therefore when we're going in, some of his distribution is taken, making it less likely that his distribution will occur.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. You do realize though that the percentage is only ONE hand less than 5% AT WORST right? This is very very close to 5% again. And 75% of the time it is the full 5%.
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