Semi-Bluff with no FE?

[King Car]

Client in the hand is your standard 52/8 beast. Client was fond of min raising c-bets, and donk min betting into pre-flop raisers.

Hero: 24/17 and had not tangled with client as of yet.

Hero has less than a PSB left on the turn. Who likes betting and who likes taking a free one in posish?

Given read on client, does anyone like just calling the flop min raise?

Comments on all streets appreciated.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $102.65
BTN: $101
SB: $92.40
BB: $125.90
UTG: $84.85
MP: $107.60

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, BB calls $24

Turn: ($79.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero????

[Unknown Soldier]

shove or call flop, 3b is pointless. (if someone mentions balancing they're going on ignore [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

[spivey]

Yeah, I kinda like a shove here, even it being way bigger than pot - you'll get looked up by random crap like T9 more than you think. As played, I check it back. What makes you think he's going to fold whatever made hand he has now?

[jk3a]

3bet size is bad, I make it atleast 44, do not like shove. As played, I'm taking a free card.

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
3bet size is bad, I make it atleast 44, do not like shove. As played, I'm taking a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is 44 &gt; shove?

[jk3a]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3bet size is bad, I make it atleast 44, do not like shove. As played, I'm taking a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is 44 &gt; shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the burden of proof is on me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Sanderrp]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I kinda like a shove here, even it being way bigger than pot - you'll get looked up by random crap like T9 more than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't we want random crap like T9 to fold here? The old letting villain make a mistake instead of getting it in when marginally in front. Let's do the math, wheeee:

Board: 9s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.123% 48.12% 00.00% 5717 0.00 { T9s, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.877% 51.88% 00.00% 6163 0.00 { AsQs }

Pot is $25.50 after villain's minraise, we have $93.15 in our stack:

EV of shoving and getting called, by T9:
(.52*($25.50 (pot) + $87.15[villain's call])) + (.48*(-$93.15)) = $58.58 -$44.71 = $13.87

EV of shoving and villain folding:
$25.50 (pot)

I don't see a shove here because I think a normal raise (44 sounds about right) has more FE. If you feel you have no FE vs this specific villain then a call is best.

On turn I check behind. Most 50/8s don't like folding turn after calling a 3-bet on the flop in my experience.

[spivey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I kinda like a shove here, even it being way bigger than pot - you'll get looked up by random crap like T9 more than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't we want random crap like T9 to fold here? The old letting villain make a mistake instead of getting it in when marginally in front. Let's do the math, wheeee:

Board: 9s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.123% 48.12% 00.00% 5717 0.00 { T9s, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.877% 51.88% 00.00% 6163 0.00 { AsQs }

Pot is $25.50 after villain's minraise, we have $93.15 in our stack:

EV of shoving and getting called, by T9:
(.52*($25.50 (pot) + $87.15[villain's call])) + (.48*(-$93.15)) = $58.58 -$44.71 = $13.87

EV of shoving and villain folding:
$25.50 (pot)

I don't see a shove here because I think a normal raise (44 sounds about right) has more FE. If you feel you have no FE vs this specific villain then a call is best.

On turn I check behind. Most 50/8s don't like folding turn after calling a 3-bet on the flop in my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, we do. I guess I was just trying to make the point that he doesn't only call with sets. I think there's a decent amount of FE and more than 25% actual equity if called.

[clowntable]

I shove flop and think the burden of proof is on the people saying 3bet to 44 :P

I want the money in with good equity, flushcard often scares donks off even if they should be committed and I think vs donkish players the shove does not have less FE than betting 44.

[King Car]

I agree, flop raise size sucked.