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  #1  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:17 PM
ir0nphist ir0nphist is offline
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Default 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

villain is 20/17/3.8, I'm 24/18/3. No real history between us.

What's your play on the river?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($155.50)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($410.70)</font>
<font color="#C00000">BB ($222.40)</font>
UTG ($153.05)
MP ($53.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($23) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, BB calls $20, UTG folds.

Turn: ($61) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $45</font>, BB calls $45.

River: ($151) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?
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  #2  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:27 PM
EasyAs1-2-3 EasyAs1-2-3 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

hm, interesting. He has $150 behind on river and we can check, bet ~1/2 pot or shove. This kind of Villain isn't usually slowplaying sets and Q10 shouldn't really be in his BB calling range. AA, KK, QQ all 3bet PF. He could have 1010 and chose not to raise that dry dry board since you have come out firing twice. I don't know if he's calling a shove or a 1/2pot bet w/ KQ or JJ. I'd prolly go for a c/c here, I just don't see him calling a lead from us w/ anything we beat. But he could think he was good w/ KQ or something and VB himself on river.
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  #3  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:41 PM
SnglMaltScotch SnglMaltScotch is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

Wow, this one is tough. I am going to assume that the numbers you gave are over a large enough sample size to be revelant.

A good player with a very high AF flat calls you on a super dry board on 2 steets. The flop call has a player yet to act.

My warning bells are going off pretty hard here. Does he just flat call here with KQ/QJ type hands. Being a 20/17 type player, I probably wouldn't call pf with QJ unless suited. I would play AQ/KQ this way but probably 3-bet AQ pf. I would also play 66/44 this way. I don't think that I would call the turn bet with 77-99 or an under pair.

Does he call a psb on the river with KQ. Probably but not always. He does fold a middle pair &lt;TT almost always.

To state the obvious, a value bet is only valuable if it is called and your hand is best. The only hand that I can see him turning up with that we beat is KQ or another passively played AQ.

Option 1: Push for $149. I think this actually gives KQ/QJ a chance to get away. It would be a big fold, but a psb on the river would be a difficult call for KQ. Pretty much everything else that we beat folds.

Option 2: C/C. AQ/KQ probably bets if check to but pretty much everything else checks behind.

Option 3: B/C. Bet an amount that you think KQ will call say $100. I don't think that you can fold if he raises over your $100 given the odds.

I think that I go with bet $100 and throw-up and call a push.

SMS
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  #4  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:48 PM
myke11 myke11 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

If you raised to 10 preflop and bet larger on the turn, the river would be an easy shove.

I probably bet like 92 here.
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  #5  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:49 PM
MrMetropolitan MrMetropolitan is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

I like a value bet of around 60. I think he rarely pushes and I think he is rarely ahead considering how the action went down. The reason I do not like check calling is because he probably checks behind most/all one pair hands which is what you are going to be getting value from and which is what I believe villain has most of the time as board is really dry.
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  #6  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:57 PM
Bramsterdam Bramsterdam is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

I'd consider c/fing. The flop is extremely dry and villains call a ~pot sized Cbet with UTG still to act and he calls another significant bet on the turn on a very dry board.

Hero only beats KQ/QJ at this point. Would he really value bet those hands on the river? That would be pretty thin imo.
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  #7  
Old 11-16-2007, 05:02 PM
optionsguy optionsguy is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

bet/call or c/call do not c/fold or bet/fold
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  #8  
Old 11-16-2007, 05:32 PM
EasyAs1-2-3 EasyAs1-2-3 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

Myke is right about $10 raise PF and bigger bet on turn. As played both c/f and b/f make me want to dry heave. Especially b/f, Really???
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  #9  
Old 11-16-2007, 06:12 PM
ir0nphist ir0nphist is offline
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Default Re: 200NL - TPTK value shove river?

[ QUOTE ]
Myke is right about $10 raise PF and bigger bet on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think the only thing that happens is we end up playing a bigger pot oop with a TP type of hand. As played, on the river villain has a PSB left in his stack. Plus I think I can profitably fold if he raises the turn.

If I recreate the hand assuming I made it $10 PF &amp; potted the flop, I don't think bet/folding the turn would be correct (~$105 to call into $350ish pot).
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