Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r

[GB2005]

I am curious to get as many opinions as possible in this hand.

PokerStars Game #10997576108: Tournament #55433701 $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2007/07/17 - 23:57:24 (ET)
Table '55433701 15' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: timkrank (107870 in chips)
Seat 2: mortens22 (52920 in chips)
Seat 3: yellowsub86 (47018 in chips)
Seat 4: Titantom32 (56472 in chips)
Seat 5: razzinu (20500 in chips)
Seat 6: GB2005 (43307 in chips)
Seat 7: lilholdem954 (259164 in chips)
Seat 8: brsavage (49262 in chips)
timkrank: posts the ante 300
mortens22: posts the ante 300
yellowsub86: posts the ante 300
Titantom32: posts the ante 300
razzinu: posts the ante 300
GB2005 : posts the ante 300
lilholdem954: posts the ante 300
brsavage: posts the ante 300
brsavage: posts small blind 1500
timkrank: posts big blind 3000

Holecards:
Dealt to GB2005 [ AdQh ]
FOLD mortens22
FOLD yellowsub86
FOLD Titantom32
FOLD razzinu
RAISE GB2005 , 5200 to 8200
RAISE lilholdem954, 15800 to 24000
RAISE brsavage, 24962 to 48962 and is all-in
FOLD timkrank

?? - what do you do

If I fold im left with just under 35K. Avg is approx 70k @ this point. I forget exactly, but we are in the money and theres approximately 25 or so players left. A little history, lilholdem is the chip leader and been very aggressive so im not really too concerned about his reraise.

Obviously, BrSavage is not bluffing, but what do you think his range is and how likely is it that im not in bad shape.


Ill post results later.

GB2005, Gary

[0evg0]

It's really just a range + PokerStove question.

But I think this is a call.

IIRC savage may be kind of nitty, but not really a typical preflop nit. You, and others who regularly donkament will have played more with him than me, but I think AJs (25%), AQ+, 99 (50%), TT+ is a good guess.

I didn't run those numbers to see if it's +cEV to call with AQo, but I think it is.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
It's really just a range + PokerStove question.

But I think this is a call.

IIRC savage may be kind of nitty, but not really a typical preflop nit. You, and others who regularly donkament will have played more with him than me, but I think AJs (25%), AQ+, 99 (50%), TT+ is a good guess.

I didn't run those numbers to see if it's +cEV to call with AQo, but I think it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be really surprised if he was ever pushing AJ here.

[8Adam8]

My initial range for brsavage was {TT+, AQ+)

Assuming thats his range and assuming lilholdem calls everytime with a very wide range, seems like a marginal fold

[KingDan]

I wou1d def have gotten it in with 1i1h but f01d now his range is pretty narrow

[mikeymer]

Wow, I would think his range is wider than that, seeing that lilholdem is probably opening a ton with that stack. tough to call off there, but i would put br's range much lighter, probably 77+ AJ+, with the extra equity it seems like a call but i haven't ran it in pstove.

[djk123]

Looks like an easy fold. brsavage is a nit.

oh and i would say br is pushing TT+,AK

[djk123]

I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

Assuming Lil always calls BR's shove, there is 96614 in the pot and we have to call our remaining
34807. So we're getting 2.77571, which means we need 26.5% equity to breakeven.

Against those 2 ranges, we only have 22.33% equity, clearly not enough.

I cannot imagine BR's range being any looser, but even if I give Lil 22+,A8+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs, we still only have 23.8% equity.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

range looks good for lil, but again I don't think BR's range is correct.

Please run the numbers for the same range for Lil and the range I suggest for BR just to make sure that is in fact a call. If it's not, then this hand is definitely a fold because I doubt BR is shoving any ligther than my range ever. But I think you'll see that if my range for BR is correct then it is definitely a call, and while I may not have played with BR as much as some of you, he's not that bad preflop that his range is TT+/AQ here IMO.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think is a fold. I do not think Lil's 3 betting range here is as wide as people
are suggesting due to the stack sizes. Lil knows GB is good and that GB knows that Lil is very
aggressive. Given this, I doubt Lil thinks GB is going to raise from LP with 13 BBs, with Lil sitting on a
monster stack on the button, and fold to a shove often enough to make reraising light a good play.

Let's say Lil's range is 66+,AT+,KQ and BR's range is TT+,AQ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

range looks good for lil, but again I don't think BR's range is correct.

Please run the numbers for the same range for Lil and the range I suggest for BR just to make sure that is in fact a call. If it's not, then this hand is definitely a fold because I doubt BR is shoving any ligther than my range ever. But I think you'll see that if my range for BR is correct then it is definitely a call, and while I may not have played with BR as much as some of you, he's not that bad preflop that his range is TT+/AQ here IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,734,808,920 games 107.348 secs 714,822,902 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.085% 19.30% 04.79% 14806352940 3675239724.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 43.895% 39.53% 04.36% 30335900280 3346526532.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 32.020% 29.65% 02.37% 22753810968 1816978476.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

Not enough. And that's with 99 and AJs counted 100% since I don't know how to discount them in pokerstove.

edit: fwiw, AQs is def a call.