100 NL, bottom set - how did i play it so far and how to continue

[we_zimbab]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $74.55
BB: $143.45
UTG: $60.85
UTG+1: $99.50
MP1: $76.50
MP2: $36.50
Hero (MP3): $97.00
CO: $65.95
BTN: $44.30

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain seems to be a solid player, and kinda nitty. He is 7-tabling. 18/7/2</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1.00, MP1 calls $1.00, MP2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, 3 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($4.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $4.50</font>, MP1 calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22.50</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises all-in to $98.50</font>, MP1 folds

[BigBiceps]

He probably doesn't have 88 or an overpair because he would have raised preflop with those.

Therefore he either has 44, a flush draw, or a flush/straight combo draw.

You are either 10%, 2-1 favorite, or flipping.

I think he most likely hand is 44, so I can recommend you fold here, but I don't know if I would be able to do it at the tables.

[SABR42]

Played fine. Now call.

[yteba]

I dont think 44 is he´s most likely hand, he´s big overbet means he wants you to fold. That points to the flush draw. I call this. Now obviously we would rather call this against a looser player, but even nitty players try to exploit FE when flopping a draw.

[pterodactyl_]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think 44 is he´s most likely hand, he´s big overbet means he wants you to fold. That points to the flush draw. I call this. Now obviously we would rather call this against a looser player, but even nitty players try to exploit FE when flopping a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many players play a flopped set exactly like this on such a drawy board and i think he is just as likely to have a set as a combo draw. I'm calling here though without any additional reads on villains postflop play.

[Panthro]

I've folded in this spot before. Flame away.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I've folded in this spot before. Flame away.

[/ QUOTE ]

nit

there are only 6combos of better hands possible, you only need to have ~37% equity to call so it has to be a overset nearly always

I wouldn't rule out AA at all here

you have 46% equity vs AA, 88, 44, if you cut AA in half it drops to 32(where you would be barely be better off folding) but his range is likely wider than 3combos AA, and oversets

[CalledDownLight]

Gotta call, but I don't like it one bit. Hes gonna have 444 or 888 here a whole lot of the time, but the fact that he could have some combo draws makes it a call.

[Panthro]

AA/KK? maybe (very small part of his range).

Combo draw? Almost never. When does a solid multitabling nit ever open limp SC's from EP?

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Combo draw? Almost never. When does a solid multitabling nit ever open limp SC's from EP?

[/ QUOTE ]
18/7 is kinda loose-passive pf.

Stuff like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is in his range I would think.