PLO100 - Assessing whether its a bare ace bluff??

[pete fabrizio]

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pushing the turn folds out a few better hands but also commits you to putting your stack in way too often with a 10 outer.

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a lot of people just won't pot-pot the nuts very often, and it's not that hard to identify them

[Elrazor]

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Fold flop... he's potting it into 6 players and there are 3 to act behind you... you're never ahead here and may get raised off your draw.

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is it not slightly suspicious that hes potting straight out fo the blinds? if he had called UTG with his hand then for sure he had a suited ace a good deal of the time, but out of the blinds? i think its about 50/50 that his Ace is suited maybe less.

anyway as the hand played out i repotted and he folded, but therefore this means if i had called the turn he would have fired a 3rd barrel im sure on the river and i win another bet.

i decided to do some maths on the hand to maybe find an optimum way of playing this situation (although im not to hot on maths so feel free to correct any errors ive made in my calcs) ive done 2 samples, one where i think its 50/50 he has a bare ace, the second where its 70/30, which is kind of where my gut was telling me i was

<u>repotting</u>

$72*50%=+$36
$145*50%=-$72-(145/*3.4-1 to make FH)$42=-$30

Net gain $6

$72*70%=+$50
$145*30%=-$43-$42=-$1

Net gain +$49

<u>Calling</u>

$145*50%=+$72
$145*50%+-$72

net gain $0

$145*70%=+$101.5
$145*30%=-$43.5

Net gain +$68

all in all although calling is better the more you are sure he has a bare ace, i tend to prefer repotting as it gives you the scope to improve to win a showdown, and also you have no guarentee villan is going to fire on the river, he may well give up. it also shows that you are not making a serious mistake repopping if you think its 50/50

[pete fabrizio]

i wouldn't be so sure he will bet the river as well. he may figure you like your hand at that point. also you don't seem to be accounting for the times he has smaller flushes.

[cts]

I think calling down all the way is better than raising -- no one ever full pot bet/folds flushes, they're either usually bluffing or they have the 3 high flush that they are taking to the felt no matter how much $ is behind.

[Poker monkey]

FWIW I think this is a bare Ace bluff much less often than you're suggesting. Lots of people will NEVER make big bluffs like this. Others will only do it only a small % of the time, and even very LAG players will think twice doing it into 5 players. Try plugging 15% into your figures and see what the EV is then.

The advantage of re-potting is as a semibluff where you're hoping non-nut flushes will fold, not because you think you might be up against a bare Ace.

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is it not slightly suspicious that hes potting straight out fo the blinds? if he had called UTG with his hand then for sure he had a suited ace a good deal of the time, but out of the blinds? i think its about 50/50 that his Ace is suited maybe less.

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Why can he not have a suited Ace in the blinds? Why's it any less likely than any other position?

[rine]

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FWIW I think this is a bare Ace bluff much less often than you're suggesting. Lots of people will NEVER make big bluffs like this. Others will only do it only a small % of the time, and even very LAG players will think twice doing it into 5 players. Try plugging 15% into your figures and see what the EV is then.

The advantage of re-potting is as a semibluff where you're hoping non-nut flushes will fold, not because you think you might be up against a bare Ace.

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is it not slightly suspicious that hes potting straight out fo the blinds? if he had called UTG with his hand then for sure he had a suited ace a good deal of the time, but out of the blinds? i think its about 50/50 that his Ace is suited maybe less.

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Why can he not have a suited Ace in the blinds? Why's it any less likely than any other position?

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Well that's more for the BB than the SB, but his range in the BB is 100% of hands whereas suited aces are probably one of the most likely hands someone would play so they make up for a large part of their range?

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I think this is a bare Ace bluff much less often than you're suggesting. Lots of people will NEVER make big bluffs like this. Others will only do it only a small % of the time, and even very LAG players will think twice doing it into 5 players. Try plugging 15% into your figures and see what the EV is then.

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15% is way too tight for a player playing 70% of hands, especially out of the blinds. 15% would be about right if its a TAG calling UTG. im not sure of the exact figures maybe someone can help but i think whenever you get dealt an ace it will be suited around 50% of the time(?)

however in this instance i just had a gut feeling he had a bare ace and i was right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Poker monkey]

How do you know he didn't fold the Q-high flush?

[Elrazor]

after i repotted he typed 'you dont believe me?' in the chat box and then folded and we had a conversation afterwards and i think he said he had the bare ace although i cant remember exactly.

edit - odds of having the ace suited are roughly 41%