PLO100 - Strongly played missed flush/wrap, bluff the river??

[Elrazor]

Hero is running a very nitty 21/4/1.11, playing a 10 seater table only cause there isnt enough 6 seaters open. first time i have played with villan and hes 32/6/3.00 over 114 hand for the session, so he looks fairly run of the mill and ive got him on AAxx fwiw

should i pop the river here? and if so how much??

Cryptologic
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $92.45
UTG+1: $50.40
UTG+2: $148.85
MP1: $66.30
MP2: $46.75
MP3: $132.30
Hero: $183.79
Button: $66.50
SB: $39.20
BB: $77.90

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises to $3</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($9.5, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $14</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($37.5, 2 players)
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20</font>, UTG+2 calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($77.5, 2 players)
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero???</font>

[original_red]

I think a PSB, or around 50-60$ would buy you the pot more than 70% of the time here, making a bluff profitable..

Sucks if it fail, but then you would atleast add some future value to your nitty style if caught [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[plako]

Opponent's line looks a lot like overpair, lone 4 or slow played QQ. Overpair is most likely. Unless you've specific read that opponent likes to call down lightly I would continue firing also on river.

Overall I don't like your line here. You want fold on flop so raise shouldn't be min-raise.

[alavet]

i dont like to push there even i do it very often
i giving him 4, prob even AA4*. You may try to bluff but if you do dont bet max, but about 54-62

also i dont like the way you played
if you gonna check-raise, raise much more
as played i make PSB on the turn

[suttinator]

I don't like that raise on the flop, especially full ring.
I'm not playing Omaha thaaat long but I've made the experiance that drawing to str8's/flushes on a paired board is not the best thing to do.

I put villian on a 4 but weak kicker (no Ace or King) and think he will just call you down. A Pot bet on the flop and a bigger one on the turn might make him even fold that hand, but a min-raise and a 20 bet will make his call easy.

[check-raisr]

I agree with bluffing here. Bet a pretty large amount. I Would not raise with that hand PF anyways.

[Poker monkey]

Fold flop. Don't chase this kind of draw on a paired board. I like a fold pre-flop as well.

As played - I can't see your opponent calling more than 50% of the time if you pot it, which would make it a good play.

[sc000t]

I bet here too. Players at FR games play so tight on the river that you almost have to bet this. I wouldn't mash a psb here since you didn't make one on the flop/turn and it might look pushy. I'd put out a $60 after giving your opponent a second or two to think about the hand. Hopefully he can lay down here.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet here too. Players at FR games play so tight on the river that you almost have to bet this. I wouldn't mash a psb here since you didn't make one on the flop/turn and it might look pushy. I'd put out a $60 after giving your opponent a second or two to think about the hand. Hopefully he can lay down here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Opponent only has to be correct 30% of the time to call here. Hero's bet however has to be correct over 40% of the time. Hero should bet and villain should call.

[Kala1928]

I fold the flop, I also give up the river once he calls the turn. He is not folding because everything missed and he is also often slowplaying Q4 QQ or "slowplaying A4". But getting to this spot is pretty gross to start with, so try to avoid it.