[Cross-Post from MSNL] Something you guys don't do enough

[MadScientist]

So the bottom line is that if we see a shortie stealing with a wide range, repop him a lot. Just like if we saw anyone stealing with a wide range, basically hands that are better than the average hand, push the shortie allin. Amirite?
However if he is a nit, even on the button, then only repop with a range profitable allin against his nit range.

BTW, I totally agree Skier_5 and I really like your post. I've been playing this way for a while, but not repopping A2 or J9. I need to really look at and work on the ranges I am repopping with here.

[Ringmaster]

Good post skier.

The general conclusions you have drawn are correct, even though your method is slightly off as others have pointed out.

Although most people will only care about the overall point you are making, I'll explain how I would do things for those who want to delve into the math a bit more.

I'll assume, as does the OP, that we have the following situation:

20 BB effectives stacks, shorty OTB, Hero in the BB.

PREFLOP: 1.5BB
3 folds, Shorty raises 3 BB, Hero shoves 19 BB more, Shorty... calls or folds.

So there's 1.5 + 3 + 19 = 23.5 in the pot and it's 17 more for shorty to call (the rest of his stack). We're offering him about 1.38:1.

Let:
p = probability villain folds
E = equity vs villain's call range
Mo = money in pot before we shove
Mh = money we risk by shoving
Mv = money shorty must call when we shove

EV(shove) = pMo + (1-p)E(Mo+Mv) - (1-p)(1-E)Mh

Setting EV = 0 and solving for E yields:

E = [(1-p)Mh - pMo] / [(1-p)(Mo+Mv+Mh)]

This is the minimum equity we need versus villain's calling range to make shoving neutral EV. Plugging in the numbers for the situation as described above we have:

E = [(1-p)(19) - p(4.5)] / (1-p)(40.5)

Note that if we set E = 0 so that we have no pot equity, p = .809. What this means is that, if shorty folds about 80% (or more) of the time we shove, we can profitably do it with any two! So in the first example skier gave where we have a shorty opening over 30% OTB, but folding all but {99+, AQ+} to a shove, its +EV to shove any 2!

IMO this call range is unrealistic, so I'll go ahead and use the looser one he provided: {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo}. To find p, we also need to know what hands he's opening with. Let's use {22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo}, which is 30.9% of hands.

So given these ranges we can find that he'll fold only 48.8% of the time. Thus, the minimum equity we need is:

E = [(1-.488)(19) - (.488)(4.5)] / (1-.488)(40.5) = .363

So any hand that has more than 36.3% equity versus the range {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo} will be +EV to shove. Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity. In this case, the hands are:

{22+, A2s+, A8o+, K9s+, KTo+, QTo+, Q9s+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 98s, 87s}

which makes up 24.3% of all hands. So even when the shorty calls with more than half of his opening range, we still profit by shoving hands like J8s.

Happy shoving! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post skier.

The general conclusions you have drawn are correct, even though your method is slightly off as others have pointed out.

Although most people will only care about the overall point you are making, I'll explain how I would do things for those who want to delve into the math a bit more.

I'll assume, as does the OP, that we have the following situation:

20 BB effectives stacks, shorty OTB, Hero in the BB.

PREFLOP: 1.5BB
3 folds, Shorty raises 3 BB, Hero shoves 19 BB more, Shorty... calls or folds.

So there's 1.5 + 3 + 19 = 23.5 in the pot and it's 17 more for shorty to call (the rest of his stack). We're offering him about 1.38:1.

Let:
p = probability villain folds
E = equity vs villain's call range
Mo = money in pot before we shove
Mh = money we risk by shoving
Mv = money shorty must call when we shove

EV(shove) = pMo + (1-p)E(Mo+Mv) - (1-p)(1-E)Mh

Setting EV = 0 and solving for E yields:

E = [(1-p)Mh - pMo] / [(1-p)(Mo+Mv+Mh)]

This is the minimum equity we need versus villain's calling range to make shoving neutral EV. Plugging in the numbers for the situation as described above we have:

E = [(1-p)(19) - p(4.5)] / (1-p)(40.5)

Note that if we set E = 0 so that we have no pot equity, p = .809. What this means is that, if shorty folds about 80% (or more) of the time we shove, we can profitably do it with any two! So in the first example skier gave where we have a shorty opening over 30% OTB, but folding all but {99+, AQ+} to a shove, its +EV to shove any 2!

IMO this call range is unrealistic, so I'll go ahead and use the looser one he provided: {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo}. To find p, we also need to know what hands he's opening with. Let's use {22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo}, which is 30.9% of hands.

So given these ranges we can find that he'll fold only 48.8% of the time. Thus, the minimum equity we need is:

E = [(1-.488)(19) - (.488)(4.5)] / (1-.488)(40.5) = .363

So any hand that has more than 36.3% equity versus the range {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo} will be +EV to shove. Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity. In this case, the hands are:

{22+, A2s+, A8o+, K9s+, KTo+, QTo+, Q9s+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 98s, 87s}

which makes up 22.3% of all hands. So even when the shorty calls with more than half of his opening range, we still profit by shoving hands like J8s.

Happy shoving! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


NH

[scallop]

Should I be worried that this gives me a headache ?

[dragonystic]

[ QUOTE ]
Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

ringmaster, can you explain this point some more please?

[tubasteve]

you guys are thinking about this too hard

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

ringmaster, can you explain this point some more please?

[/ QUOTE ]

hes saying, even though the top 50% of hands average equity is 39.426% vs his calling range we shouldnt be shoving all of the top 50% of hands..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.574% 59.00% 01.58% 124653669020 3331258532.00 { 44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 39.426% 37.85% 01.58% 79971853692 3331258532.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }

reason being is because some of the hands in the top 50% do not themselves have 36.3 equity vs the calling range(i.e. Q7o)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.153% 68.73% 00.42% 2711419596 16759104.00 { 44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 30.847% 30.42% 00.42% 1200210612 16759104.00 { Q7o }

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post skier.

The general conclusions you have drawn are correct, even though your method is slightly off as others have pointed out.

Although most people will only care about the overall point you are making, I'll explain how I would do things for those who want to delve into the math a bit more.

I'll assume, as does the OP, that we have the following situation:

20 BB effectives stacks, shorty OTB, Hero in the BB.

PREFLOP: 1.5BB
3 folds, Shorty raises 3 BB, Hero shoves 19 BB more, Shorty... calls or folds.

So there's 1.5 + 3 + 19 = 23.5 in the pot and it's 17 more for shorty to call (the rest of his stack). We're offering him about 1.38:1.

Let:
p = probability villain folds
E = equity vs villain's call range
Mo = money in pot before we shove
Mh = money we risk by shoving
Mv = money shorty must call when we shove

EV(shove) = pMo + (1-p)E(Mo+Mv) - (1-p)(1-E)Mh

Setting EV = 0 and solving for E yields:

E = [(1-p)Mh - pMo] / [(1-p)(Mo+Mv+Mh)]

This is the minimum equity we need versus villain's calling range to make shoving neutral EV. Plugging in the numbers for the situation as described above we have:

E = [(1-p)(19) - p(4.5)] / (1-p)(40.5)

Note that if we set E = 0 so that we have no pot equity, p = .809. What this means is that, if shorty folds about 80% (or more) of the time we shove, we can profitably do it with any two! So in the first example skier gave where we have a shorty opening over 30% OTB, but folding all but {99+, AQ+} to a shove, its +EV to shove any 2!

IMO this call range is unrealistic, so I'll go ahead and use the looser one he provided: {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo}. To find p, we also need to know what hands he's opening with. Let's use {22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo}, which is 30.9% of hands.

So given these ranges we can find that he'll fold only 48.8% of the time. Thus, the minimum equity we need is:

E = [(1-.488)(19) - (.488)(4.5)] / (1-.488)(40.5) = .363

So any hand that has more than 36.3% equity versus the range {44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo} will be +EV to shove. Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity. In this case, the hands are:

{22+, A2s+, A8o+, K9s+, KTo+, QTo+, Q9s+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 98s, 87s}

which makes up 24.3% of all hands. So even when the shorty calls with more than half of his opening range, we still profit by shoving hands like J8s.

Happy shoving! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i came

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

ringmaster, can you explain this point some more please?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is we know our hand before we have to decide whether to shove or not, and we only want to shove the times when it's +EV to do so. We don't need to put ourselves on a range before we move in. We shouldn't be shoving any hand which is -EV to shove in isolation (metagame reasons aside).

We could include 32o in Hero's range and still the range as a whole would be profitable to shove. But why would we want to? Shoving 32o is a -EV play by itself, so we're needlessly costing ourselves money by shoving with it. Since we'll know the times we hold 32o, we can avoid making a -EV play by folding it instead.

We simply want a list of all hands which are +EV to move in with given the situation.

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Note that we don't want to find a range of hands that have this equity on average, we want a list of hands that each have at least this minimum equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

ringmaster, can you explain this point some more please?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is we know our hand before we have to decide whether to shove or not, and we only want to shove the times when it's +EV to do so. We don't need to put ourselves on a range before we move in. We shouldn't be shoving any hand which is -EV to shove in isolation (metagame reasons aside).

We could include 32o in Hero's range and still the range as a whole would be profitable to shove. But why would we want to? Shoving 32o is a -EV play by itself, so we're needlessly costing ourselves money by shoving with it. Since we'll know the times we hold 32o, we can avoid making a -EV play by folding it instead.

We simply want a list of all hands which are +EV to move in with given the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not completely true. A range with some -EV hands may make more money than a range with no -EV hands because those -EV hands may force our short stacker to open up his range and pay off our big hands more and increase our equity with our more marginal holdings.