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#1
12-05-2006, 08:28 PM
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Combo draw 300bb deep
Villain is GRABYOURANKLES and has 26/18 stats. Would a larger flop bet gain an appreciable amount of fold equity? Does the Q effect your decision on whether to two barrel?
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $2/$4 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $397 UTG+1: $412.30 CO: $366.80 Hero: $1162.60 SB: $1254.50 BB: $386 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $46</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $32 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $62)</font>. Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($96, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $70</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $217</font>, SB calls $147 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $383)</font>. Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($530, 2 players) SB checks, Hero checks. River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($530, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $300</font>, Hero folds. Uncalled bets: $300 returned to SB. Results: Final pot: $530 
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#4
12-06-2006, 12:24 AM
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Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
Do you think villain would 3bet AA/KK here on the flop? This is kind of similar to HEK's thread in HSNL earlier- I think the flop raise is fine, and raising any more is kind of ridiculous, but getting checkraised on the turn would not be happy. I think the Q is essentially a blank - it only matters if one of you has a flush draw with a Q or if he hit a two outer to make a set.
Thinking about this some more, if you're trying to get him to lay down an overpair, it's a bit tricky with your bet sizes, as a near pot bet on the turn is like 400-500, and if he calls that, on the river he's facing a 400-500 bet into a 1700 river or something. He should probably be folding AA/KK there, but he might get obstinate. Another option would be to call the flop (pot ~250?) and then raise a turn, which has a lot more FE, or just call the turn as well and raise the river with position.
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#6
12-06-2006, 02:14 AM
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Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
[ QUOTE ]
I would either raise more on the flop so I can shove the turn comfortably, or call. As played, turn and river are fine [/ QUOTE ] Exactly my thoughts. Scott
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#9
12-06-2006, 03:28 PM
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Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
I'm 99.9% sure he doesn't have a set because the board is so low. I'm a 5:4 favorite over TT+ (w/ heart) and 3:2 over AhTh+/TT+ (w/ no heart) on the flop.
How much can I expect to extract when I hit which draws, from which hands? If a heart or 6 hits I probably won't be able to get much (anything?), unless he picks up a redraw to a better flush. If a 3 hits, that will be sweet and I might even get his whole stack, but only if he has AA/Ax -- if he has TT-KK it will suck. If he has overcards, say, AK, and a Kh turns, then just calling would seems genius; but if a Kd comes, it doesn't. My mind is really bogging down in all the different scenarios. I can't generate the tree of green +EV and red -EV branches. Usually when I semi-bluff, I want people to fold, but with 17+ outs, I wonder if I it's more EV to shove and hope the ridiculous overbet induces AA to think "flush draw" and call. And if he folds, well, thats fine too, a free $166 in my pocket. As a supposed professional gambler, I'm supposed to be comfortable betting $1200 with a ~4:3 edge, aren't I?
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#10
12-06-2006, 04:04 PM
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Re: Combo draw 300bb deep
uh? he NEVER calls a $1200 bet into a <$200 pot without a set unless hes unbelievably [censored] retarded.
shoving is the worst of all options imo. anyway I raise bigger on the flop but as played it's fine.
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