crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[paperchamp]

Why are you guys getting so personal with a guy who is at least trying to back up his argument? I'm heppy to see someone make an argument other than "because X said so" like Thremp and others are known to do.

[bugstud]

couple things

1000 trials really isn't enough of a sample
the "other" projections are notorious for having "less accurate" minor league translation/projections, hurting both AZ and TB with regards to this year.

If you want to believe that these projections aren't correct, more power to you. I remember you panning the bp postseason odds report last year, but that currently has 2-5 TB winning the division 5% of the time.

[onlinebeginner]

basically tampa bay does not have enough pitching to give them a shot at winning the division... i'll give anybody 120-1 odds... pokerstars money i'll go up to eh 30 bucks total and i will put 3600 dollars in a cd until the end of september


anyone?

[MyTurn2Raise]

bugstud is right, a 1,000 trial Monte Carlo is kind of weak-sauce

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]

You know ImBen's MO. He validates or invalidates people's comments. He's a huge douche about it either way,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not surprised to read this. ImBen lost a last-longer bet to me a few weeks ago. I was naive enough to trust him and not insist on a third-party hold, and he is apparently unwilling to pay up.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm heppy to see someone make an argument other than "because X said so" like Thremp and others are known to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, that's some solid ownage.

[ImStillBen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You know ImBen's MO. He validates or invalidates people's comments. He's a huge douche about it either way,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not surprised to read this. ImBen lost a last-longer bet to me a few weeks ago. I was naive enough to trust him and not insist on a third-party hold, and he is apparently unwilling to pay up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I hate that piece of [censored], too.

[thing85]

I was bored, so I thought I'd check up on how the player props are doing as we have ~34 games left in the season.

Joe Blanton under 15.5 W - Currently has 11 wins; Assuming he doesn't win 5 of his last 6-7 starts, this one looks like a winner.

Ervin Santana under 15 W - This is either a win or a no action. He needs to make 3 more starts for this bet to have action, so we'll see if LA allows him to do that.

Jon Garland under 16.5 W - With only 8 wins right now, winner.

Gary Matthews Jr. under .302 BA - Barring some sort of supernatural heater, this one's a winner (he's batting .264 right now).

Bobby Jenks under 38 Sv - Despite how bad the Sox have been, this one is more likely a loser (36 saves right now).

Francisco Rodriguez over 1.90 ERA - 2.75 ERA currently, probably a winner.

Justin Morneau under 127 RBI - On pace for ~120 RBI, so this one could be close.

Mike Piazza over 59.5 RBI - No action (only 60 games played so far).

Takashi Saito under 35.5 Sv - Loser (36 saves)

Ben Sheets over 170 K - Loser or no action (probably needs to make all of his remaining starts for this to be actioned, with only 19 starts currently).

Huston Street over 2.24 ERA - Could be close, with a 2.78 ERA currently. Only has 35 IP, so it won't take much to bring that ERA down.

Justin Verlander under 15.5 W - With 14 wins right now, probably a loser.

Barry Zito under 16 W - Easy money (probably).

Not too bad overall. It looks like we're winning 7-8 of the 10-12 plays that will have action. If I have time later, I'll probably take a look at the team wins props.

[whipsaw]

thing85 prompted me to look at these as well.

White Sox under (insert number) W

nice winner. I don't even remember where the line was set at the time, but it's a winner.

Diamondbacks over 78.5 W

only need 5 more wins. solid winner here.

Dodgers under 88.5 W

They'd need to go 20-10 over the final 32 to make this a loser, which isn't unheard of but will be hard. 6 games left against SDG, 4 against CHC, and 6 against AZ. More road games than home games. Very likely winner.

Blue Jays under 87.5 W

Basically a winner. They need 21 more wins, and with 6 against both the yanks and sox, as well as an inter-division series against seattle, no way they get 21 more.

Nice 4-0 on these crock.

[BooNaNy]

I know he went through a cold streak during the All-Star break. Anyone know his YTD stats? Thanks