*** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't see the a-hole comment. He pointed out that the arb was not worth taking, which I agree with.

If that was an a-hole comment you have been gone too long to see the usual tone of people around here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I became as soft as a little girl while I was away.

[Pete G]

NBA:
Pinny : Spurs +8 +113
Bodog : Hornet -8 -110

[Utah]

wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[CharlieDontSurf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a million considered 22,000,000.000?
so its virtually impossible to push

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

I worked out formula once but I dont have it handy. It depends on the expected standard distribution and it depends if the range is in the sweet spot of where you think the movie will land. However, if I recall it is about 7 or 8 for every 125K as a starting point.

I also just paid for the Middle on Happyness. +120 and -172
. $420 or so if middle hits and lose 20 if it doesnt. I think the range for this movie is 16 to 22. So, conservatively I hit 1 in 10 and lost 9 in 10. +420 - 180 for +EV of $14. $140/10

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a million considered 22,000,000.000?
so its virtually impossible to push

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is nearly impossible to push. They don't round the totals.

[CharlieDontSurf]

This probably doesn't belong in here but this thread is pretty quiet regardless...Utah do u have a list of all the sites that do box office lines? WSEX/Pinni/?

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
This probably doesn't belong in here but this thread is pretty quiet regardless...Utah do u have a list of all the sites that do box office lines? WSEX/Pinni/?

[/ QUOTE ]PM'd

[dankhank]

clippers -2 -108 (skybook)
blazers +2 +111 (pinnacle)