i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[Pete G]

llabb, what do you think about Katharine McPhee at +3500? I think the only 3 that are safe are the group of Chris, Taylor and Kellie . Who have never been in the bottom three through their fan base, talent , and song selections.

Katherine has talent but I could see her chosing a bad song and leaving this week.

I would guess the bottom three will be Eliot, Ace and Katherine. Eliot will probally be going but at +3500 a small bet on Katherine wouldn't be a bad thing.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
I am formally recommending a preliminary bet on Paris at +1100 (or anything higher) prior to the show next week. I expect arbitrage opportunity to come from this preliminary pick.

While it's possible that Paris will bump up due to votes swinging from Mandisa, I do not expect that to be the case. I believe she'll struggle with the material this week, and will be at risk of the bottom three thus her line will fall dramatically after the show.

[/ QUOTE ]
I both agree and disagree. I think Paris does pick up the bulk of the Mandisa fanbase, and also has a voting advantage as the only black contestant left. So I don't think she will actually be voted off. However, like you said, I do think there's a chance (say 40% or so) that she barely ends up in the bottom 3. So if you just want to hedge, in order to be comfortable with a larger wager on others, her odds are so long that it's reasonable to hedge on her.


[ QUOTE ]

I also believe Pickler will bomb on the show, and the +1800 line to be +EV however it will be very unlikely that she's actually eliminated. however in a trading market, I would take a selling position on Pickler as her value should decline after the show.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree here, and reiterate to any interested:
Kellie NOT to make final 4: You get +100
Kellie NOT to make final 5: You get +200
Kellie NOT to make final 6: You get +400
Kellie NOT to make final 7: You get +800


[ QUOTE ]
llabb, what do you think about Katharine McPhee at +3500?

[/ QUOTE ]
Re: Katharine, I do not think she leaves this week, and doubtful at bottom 3.

[llabb]

FYI, free public service announcement. Pinny just put up some last longers, and there's a miniscule arb available between them and WSEX. They both have Chris vs Kat in a LL. You can get Chris -148 on Pinny, Kat +150 on WSEX.

Yes, it's super-tiny, but it is an arb, so I thought I'd let those of you with big bankrolls know. It's too small to be worth it to me to tie up a ton of funds, but go for it if you like.

[Performify]

Making another formal preshow recommendation:

.1 unit on Pickler to leave this week at +1000.

So that gives us:

.1 unit on Paris at +1100
.1 unit on Pickler at +1000

Yes, obviously wishing i'd taken advantage of the +1800 that I originally posted. I knew her value was going to fall, I just didn't expect it would fall so quickly. Its been around +1000 most of the week.

I'll re-evaluate after the show tonight.

"season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units

Paris has dropped down to around +850 so hopefully you were able to get in at the higher level. I'd recommend moving on "to win a unit" at +850 now even so, as its going to fall significantly post-show with her expected performance struggles.

I look for a bottom three this week of Bucky, Paris, and Pickler. Not yet sure if Bucky can do enough to get voted off or not, but having Paris and Pickler at 10-1 is going to be a good position when they're in the bottom three.

[Performify]

Post-show thoughts.

Very happy with my position on Paris.

Kellie's stock should drop a little, but not exactly as much as anticipated.

Ace is going to be in trouble this week, i think. I look for a bottom three of Ace, Bucky and Paris with Ace going home.

Waiting for the lines to repop to post a formal recommendation for the week.

[Angelus]

What a disgrace. They have one of the most legendary bands as the theme...and they completely blow it.

I cannot, for the life of me, understand how you can have 8 singers out there and nobody sings "We are the Champions". Then, to top it off, they change "We will rock you" to be more mellow and have a ditzy blonde country girl sing "Bohemian Rhapsody".

Freaking unbelievable.

Simon hit the nail on the head when he said Chris had a real chance tonight. If he had come out with any of the three songs I listed above, he could have cemented himself as the favorite to win this thing. Instead, he sings a song nobody's ever heard before and does a poor job with it.

I have no clue who'll be in the bottom three. They all deserve to go home.

[smbruin22]

angelus, i enjoyed your rant [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] i both agreed and disagreed with different parts.

i thought the idols were actually fairly good (other than ace).

why chris chooses some obscure song when he would have been sensational song is beyond me

unless somehow he has a huge teenage girl following (i know he has a gay following), ace has to be a really strong choice to leave this.

bottom 3 i guess will be bucky (did an o.k. job), ace (for sure - no doubt) and who else? probably elliott although he's fairly safe.

i'll check tradesport.com. see where it's at....

[smbruin22]

ooops, tradesports.com ACE going home has sky-rocketed to 40%. bucky at 50%.

any value in elliott (3%) or paris (6%) going home... or very, very speculative katharine at 2% to go home...

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

As far as your elimination picks go, is it "fair" that you are picking 3 out of 9 contestanst to go, and saying that is a "win". I understand you won by hedging, as did I. It just seems that if you are going to pick 3 each week you should never lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a fair question.

This week, i specifically called out mandisa so either way I think its a clear win.

In my opinion if I post a three-pick arbitrage that should count as one pick - that's what I recommended playing, and would take the ~1 unit win or ~2.5 unit loss to my "record" depending on the outcome - that's the disclaimer I posted in the pick post anyways.

Happy to take feedback and track the record either way.

I don't expect three person arbitrages every week - the farther we go the clearer cut its going to become (and the less favorable the lines, I don't expect a +1 unit arbitrage on the expected bottom three every week)

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to learn the definition of 'arbitrage'.

[m bozeman]

Bottom 3 tonight should be Ace, Bucky, and Elliot. Although, with the way things have been the last few weeks, who knows. Maybe Chris will be in the bottom 3; that would be nice.