Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River

[grandgnu]

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Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

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I don't mind a value bet, when you believe with significant certainty that you have the best hand.

But this guy min-check raised us on the flop, check-called a HUGE turn bet and checked on the river. None of his actions make any sense (from our perspective) for him having made the straight, flush, set, top pair with good kicker, pair with draw, etc.

The only possible holding that Villian could have in this spot that would make sense with the way he played would be 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

But the chances for another holding are higher. Still, we aren't ahead of all of those holdings and his play did not reflect those hands.

So that means either he's a good player with the monster 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or he's a donk and we still don't know what his holding is.

Risking, let's say 600 chips (in the hope we get paid off another 600) is pretty much -EV here. If we're beat and get check-raised then here's our problem:

HOPE TO WIN: 600 chips

RISKING TO WIN THOSE CHIPS: 1600 + tournament life

We're pretty much risking 2.7 times the amount we hope to win.

[Pat Southern]

If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life. I'd say that there's a very small chance I'm ahead here if he checkraises the river, and I can therefore fold; furthermore I think I'm best the majority of the time when he calls, which would make betting correct. If however I thought that 1. he c/r bluffs enough with a worse hand 2. doesn't call with enough worse hands then i like checking behind on the river. I just think that from what I can gather from his play on this hand he isn't that type of player to make betting incorrect.

[beenben]

The way he played the turn makes me think he was on a flush draw. I now think he made his flush and that he wants to check-raise again. There is the possibility that he is a donkey and has been calling with TPTK or something else that we beat. A str8 is now unlikely as is a set or another two pair. If we bet, I think we are throwing chips away to his flush. I check behind.

[CardSharpCook]

the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time. The way you played this hand, it is not reasonable to have the flush draw. Villian should know this. A bet of 5-800 looks like one last desperation attempt to take this pot down, and if your opponent has nothing, he may try to push. Why? 'Cause how could he push without the flush? In my earlier post, I said 8% chance of flush, 40% if he pushes. I'll up that to 60%. He shouldn't have a flush here. Most players don't call the 550 on the turn w/o a draw, though combo draws like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might (incorrectly). That a player would do that and then check the river is even more unlikely. We know that this is a player capable of a check/rz bluff, so the chance that he might do it again is increased.

Now, there are many "made" hands that call this "desperation river bluff". Any Q, some 9s, some PPs. The only hand I am scared of is Q9. This is Value Bet Time.

[Pat Southern]

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the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

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I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

[NoahSD]

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the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

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I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

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You see monsters under the bed.

[adanthar]

OK, first time in a week I'm not dead so let me take a stab at this post:

I think I said on the flop that we bet 1/2 the pot or so, call a CR and call the turn/bet if checked to. Great, according to plan so far. We get a pretty bad, but not horrible river and the BB checks. What does that tell us?

Well, there's very little chance he has a flush, because that doesn't usually check this card. He didn't flop a straight (I hope, because this would be the worst possible way to play it) and this isn't a hand that had us beat on the turn unless it was exactly 97/Q9. So, when we have him beat now (which is usually), it's probably with something like A9, and we need to figure out what he will call. I think that figure is in the 600-800 range, depending on what looks more like a last street bluff (I've bet exactly 520 there a few times) and go with whatever I decide is worth it. Also, I take a bunch of time off the clock when I do.

BTW, if you do bet something in this range, I think you can fold to a quick push, because one pair does not play this way and if you want to call a CR you have to put him on a three street bluff with absolutely nothing.

[Pat Southern]

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the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

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I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

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You see monsters under the bed.

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Give me a range of hands that somebody will play like this then check raise the river where you are ahead 25% of the time.

[grandgnu]

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If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life.

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Alright, so the pot has 1800 chips, we bet out 600, leaving ourselves 1K behind. Villian check-raises to put us all-in, making the pot 3,000. We're getting 3:1 on our money and we fold? You could have saved the 600 chips AND had a 100% chance to see the showdown and possibly win the 1800.

So to try and win an additional 600 chips, you're risking the 1800 chips in the pot (since you plan to fold to a check-raise). This is just about as bad as risking the 600 chips with the intention of calling a check-raise for our remaining 1K chips (i.e. risking 1600 to win another 600 plus risking our entire tournament life).

[Ansky]

Easy check. Every draw is there, and it means he wont make a crying call with a top pair type mediocre hand. Better hands call, worse hands fold.